圈闭预探项目综合评价优选方法研究

Study on the comprehensive evaluation and optimization method for trap pre-exploration projects

目前,“高效勘探”概念在油气企业经营中备受关注。圈闭预探项目是勘探阶段项目管理的关键一环,在年度项目优选决策过程中既要实现储量目标,也要注重储量的价值性。为了能够综合衡量圈闭预探项目的地质因素和经济因素,构建了项目综合指标体系,包括实物量指标、财务评价指标、单位投资成效指标,并给出了每个指标的计算公式。随后,结合综合指标体系解释了指标归一化方法,分析了指标权重的赋值方法以及指标体系综合得分的计算方法。最后,以某公司7个圈闭预探项目为例,选取了新增控制储量、储量升级系数、净现值、风险后价值、净现值指数、单位投资控制储量作为关键指标,采用层次分析法对指标进行权重赋值,并计算出综合得分,对7个项目进行排队优选。研究结果表明,只按照新增储量大小、只按照净现值值大小、综合考虑储量经济等因素后的项目排队结果不同,综合法更贴近实际。

At present,the concept of“efficient exploration”has received much attention in the operation of oil and gas enterprises.The trap pre-exploration project is the key in the exploration projects.In the annual project selection decision-making process,it is necessary to achieve the reserve target and also pay attention to the value of reserves.In order to comprehensively measure the geological and economic factors of trap pre-exploration projects,this paper constructs a comprehensive indicator index,mainly including physical quantity indicators,financial evaluation indicators,and unit investment performance indicators,and provides the calculation formula for each indicator.Then,explains the normalization method for indicators,analyzes the method for assigning the index weight and the calculation method of the comprehensive indicator index.Finally,takes seven trap pre-exploration projects as an example,and selects the key index,including newly added reserves,upgrade coefficient,net present value,post-risk value,net present value index,and unit investment controlled reserves.Using analytic hierarchy process to assign weights to indicators and calculate comprehensive scores,queue up and optimize seven items.The research results indicate that the project ranking results are different based only on the size of newly added reserves, only on the size of net present value, and after considering factors such as reserve economy, the comprehensive method is more realistic.