甘肃省农业净碳汇与农业生产的时空耦合特征

Temporal and Spatial Coupling Characteristics of Agricultural Net Carbon Sink and Agricultural Production in Gansu Province

重点研究甘肃省农业净碳汇时空演变规律,并对农业净碳汇与农业产出的耦合协调关系进行研究。在对农业净碳汇进行测算的基础上,采用空间自相关方法分析其时序演进和空间集聚关系,采用耦合协调模型和改进的Tapio耦合指数分析农业净碳汇与农业产出的耦合协调关系。结果表明:2005—2021年间甘肃省各市州农业净碳汇总量呈波动增加趋势,具有较强的碳汇功能,各区域之间差异较明显,农业净碳汇具有空间自相关特征,邻近市州的农业净碳汇之间存在显著正相关,整体呈现一个高-高聚集、低-低聚集的分布特征,且集聚状态相对稳定;农业净碳汇与农业生产总值之间的耦合协调度经历了由全局失调到全局协调的变化过程,但协调水平仍较低;农业净碳汇与农业产出的Tapio耦合关系仍呈现出典型的经济主导型耦合特征。甘肃省在保证实现农业经济增长的同时努力降低环境资源消耗、减轻生态压力,但农业发展与环境保护总体仍存在矛盾,因此未来应该继续减源增汇,努力优化二者之间的关系。

This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural net carbon sinks in Gansu Province,and studies the coupling and coordination relationship between agricultural net carbon sinks and agricultural output.On the basis of the measurement of agricultural net carbon sinks,the spatial autocorrelation method is used to analyze the temporal evolution and spatial agglomeration relationship,and the coupling coordination model and the improved Tapio coupling index are used to analyze the coupling and coordination relationship between agricultural net carbon sinks and agricultural output.The results show that from 2005 to 2021,the agricultural net carbon sink of cities and prefectures in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating and increasing trend,with a strong carbon sink function,and the differences between regions were obvious.The coupling coordination degree between agricultural net carbon sink and agricultural GDP has undergone a change process from global imbalance to global coordination,but the coordination level is still low.The Tapio coupling relationship between agricultural net carbon sink and agricultural output still presents a typical economy-led coupling characteristic.Gansu Province strives to reduce the consumption of environmental resources and reduce ecological pressure while ensuring the growth of agricultural economy,but there is still a contradiction between agricultural development and environmental protection,so it should continue to reduce sources and increase foreign exchange in the future,and strive to optimize the relationship between the two.