瀑河流域降水径流趋势分析

Analysis of precipitation runoff trend in Baohe River basin

以瀑河上游平泉水文站和下游宽城水文站为研究对象,运用滑动平均法、线性回归法、双累积曲线法及Mann-Kendall检验法,分析了1960—2018年的年降水和年径流量数据。结果表明:平泉站年降水量基本稳定在多年平均值附近,宽城站年降水量呈不显著的下降趋势。两站降水量系列没有发生突变及趋势性变化。两站年径流量在1960—1998年呈不显著的下降趋势,1998—2018年径流量序列呈显著下降趋势,在1988年发生突变。整个时期降水径流关系发生了两次明显变化,分别为1978年和1996年。经调查分析,径流量发生变化与该流域同时期开展大规模的水土保持有相关性。

This paper takes Pingquan hydrological station in the upper reaches of Baohe River and Kuancheng hydrological station in the lower reaches of Baohe River as research objects.Using the moving average,linear regression,double cumulative curve and Mann-Kendall test.The annual precipitation and runoff data from 1960 to 2018 were analyzed.The annual precipitation of Pingquan station was basically stable near the annual average,while the annual precipitation of Kuancheng station showed an insignificant downward trend.The precipitation series of the two stations were consistent and there was no mutation.The annual runoff of the two stations showed an insignificant decreasing trend from 1960 to 1998,and a significant decreasing trend from 1998 to 2018,and a mutation occurred in 1988.There were two obvious changes in precipitation and runoff relationship during the whole period,which were 1978 and 1996 respectively.It shows that the annual runoff variation is not caused by the change of precipitation,but mainly by human activities.