基于系统动力学氢需求预测与综合能源系统优化配置研究

Hydrogen Demand Prediction Based on System Dynamics and Research on Optimal Configuration of Integrated Energy System

氢能作为新兴能源会促进工业、交通、电力和供热领域的绿色转型,实现能源的综合利用。首先,综合考虑钢铁和煤化工产业的工艺转型、氢能交通工具的迅速普及、氢燃料电池发电的快速发展、天然气掺氢的占比提升、绿电制氢的成本降低,建立了多领域氢需求预测的系统动力学模型,计及不同领域中的用氢特性,将用氢需求转化为等效电负荷;其次,以净现总成本最低为优化目标,计及设备运行、氢储能、负荷缺电率约束,构建了综合能源系统的容量配置模型;最后,以新疆地区为例,探究不同风光类型、绿氢渗透及风光占比对系统配置结果的影响,得到了各设备的最优容量配置以及成本情况,验证了所提模型在满足负荷需求的同时显著降低了系统总成本。

As an emerging energy source,hydrogen energy will promote the green transformation in the fields of industry,transportation,electricity and heating,and realize the comprehensive utilization of energy.Firstly,considering the process transformation of the steel and coal chemical industry,the rapid popular-ization of hydrogen energy vehicles,the rapid development of hydrogen fuel cell power generation,the in-crease of the proportion of natural gas hydrogen blending,and the reduction of the cost of green electricity hydrogen production,a system dynamics model for multi-domain hydrogen demand prediction is estab-lished.Considering the hydrogen consumption characteristics in different fields,the hydrogen demand is converted into equivalent electrical load.Secondly,taking the lowest net present total cost as the optimiza-tion objective,considering the constraints of equipment operation,hydrogen energy storage and load power shortage rate,the capacity configuration model of integrated energy system is constructed.Finally,taking Xinjiang as an example,the influence of different scenery types,green hydrogen penetration and scenery proportion on the system configuration results is explored,and the optimal capacity configuration and cost of each equipment are obtained.It is verified that the proposed model can significantly reduce the total cost of the system while meeting the load demand.