基于滑动相关系数法的贵州省降雨-径流变异诊断

Diagnosis of rainfall-runoff variation based on sliding correlation coefficient method

选取贵州省1995—2020年降雨与径流实测资料,分析其水文气象要素的演变规律,运用累计距平法和Man-Kendall趋势法直观反映降雨、径流时间序列变化的趋势性、阶段性,采用Spearman秩次相关检验法研究降雨与径流的关联性,将滑动窗口与相关系数结合诊断变异,并采用双累计曲线法对比验证。结果表明:贵州省年径流量以4.382亿m 3/5a的速率大幅减小,未来呈持续下降势态;年降雨量以0.994亿m 3/5a的速率不增不减,未来呈平稳状态。贵州省降雨-径流联合序列发生了一次变异,突变年份为2010年。

The measured rainfall and runoff data of Guizhou Province from 1995 to 2020 were selected,the evolution law of the sequence of hydrometeorological elements in the study area was analyzed,the correlation between rainfall and runoff was analyzed by using the Spearman rank correlation test method,the correlation coefficient method was combined with the data sliding window for variation diagnosis,and the double cumulative curve method was used for verification.The results show that the annual runoff in Guizhou Province is significantly reduced at a rate of 438.2 million m 3/5a,and will continue to decrease in the future.The annual rainfall fluctuates at a rate of 0.994 million m 3/5a,and will remain stable in the future.The combined rainfall-runoff sequence in Guizhou Province mutated once in 2010.