气候变化背景下药用植物牡丹的潜在适生区分析

Analysis on Potential Suitable Distribution of Endangered Medicinal Paeonia suffruticosa Species Under Climate Change Scenarios

牡丹是传统药材,在缓解镇痉,治疗中风、腹痛等病症上有独特的功效。随着我国药材市场对牡丹丹皮需求量的增加,以及极端气候出现导致野生资源急剧下降,急需在适宜区域对牡丹进行引种栽培。应用牡丹在中国的分布记录,结合环境因子,通过MaxEnt模型模拟牡丹潜在分布区域,再应用环境因子贡献率和刀切法检验分析分别得出影响牡丹分布的环境因子。结果表明:牡丹训练集数据AUC值为:0.979,模型准确度高,模拟的效果较好;当前牡丹的高适生区主要呈饼状分布在川东部,面积为23.90×10^(4)km^(2),占总适生区7.37%;影响牡丹地理分布最主要的环境因子为年降水量;在预测未来气候变化的前提下,牡丹的低适生区面积将出现明显上升的态势,牡丹高适生区面积下降的态势明显,牡丹高适生区质心向东北有不同程度的迁移,其在高CO_(2)浓度排放情境下迁移幅度较大。研究结果可为牡丹新品种的合理可重复继续开发利用研究与大面积引种和培育研究提供理论依据。

Paeonia suffruticosa is a traditional medicinal herb,which has uniquely effects on relieving antispasmodic spasms and treating conditions such as stroke and abdominal pain.With the increasing demand for P.suffruticosa bark in China's medicinal market and the sharp decline of wild resources due to extreme climate,it is urgent to introduce and cultivate P.suffruticosa in suitable areas.Based on the distribution records of P.suffruticosa in China,combined with environmental factors,the potential distribution area of P.suffruticosa was simulated by MaxEnt model.The environmental factors affecting the distribution of P.suffruticosa were obtained by using the contribution rate of environmental factors and knife cutting method.The results showed that the AUC value of P.suffruticosa training set data was 0.979,indicating that the model was accurate and the simulation results were reliable.At present,the high suitable area of P.suffruticosa was mainly distributed in the eastern part of Sichuan province,with an area of 23.90×10^(4) km^(2),accounting for 7.37%of the total suitable area.The most important environmental factor affecting the geographical distribution of P.suffruticosa was annual precipitation.Under the future climate change scenarios,the low suitable area of P.suffruticosa would increase significantly,and the high suitable area of P.suffruticosa would decrease significantly.The mass center of the high suitable area of P.suffruticosa would move to the northeast,and its migration range would be larger under the scenario of a higher CO_(2) concentration emission.The results provide a theoretical basis for the rational and repeatable development and utilization of P.suffruticosa varieties,as well as large-scale introduction and cultivation.