中国居民直接碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Direct Carbon Emissions of Chinese Residents

为探明居民家庭能源直接碳排放的影响因素和空间特性,采用莫兰指数(Moran's I)分析居民家庭直接碳排放的空间相关性,建立地理加权回归(GWR)模型并对居民直接碳排放影响因素进行分析。结果表明:居民直接碳排放在河北、山东、内蒙古、江苏等北部沿海及东部沿海省份为高-高聚集,在新疆、西藏、青海等西北省份为低-低聚集。城镇化率对居民直接碳排放的影响作用最大,回归系数位于0.80~0.97之间。城镇化率、家庭规模和居民节能政策认知会促进居民直接碳排放,人均住宅面积和居民用能行为对居民直接碳排放的影响程度在不同省份间表现出较大差异。总体而言,中国居民直接碳排放具有空间上的异质性,居民端碳减排需因地制宜。

To investigate the influencing factors and spatial characteristics of direct carbon emissions from residential energy use,Moran's I was used to analyze the spatial correlation of direct carbon emissions from residential households.Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model was established to analyze the influencing factors of direct carbon emissions from residents.The results showed that direct carbon emissions from residential households were high-highly aggregated in northern coastal and eastern coastal provinces such as Hebei,Shandong,Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu,while they were low-lowly aggregated in northwestern provinces such as Xinjiang,Tibet and Qinghai.The urbanization rate had the largest impact on direct carbon emissions from residential households,with a regression coefficient ranging from 0.80 to 0.97,indicating that areas with higher urbanization rates tended to emit more carbon.In addition,household size and residents'awareness of energy-saving policies also had positive effects on direct carbon emissions.The impact of per capita residential area and energy consumption behavior on direct carbon emissions varied significantly among different provinces.In general,direct carbon emissions from Chinese residents exhibit spatial heterogeneity,and efforts to reduce carbon emissions from households should be tailored to local conditions.