交通运输行业碳排放研究进展

Research Progress on Carbon Emissions of Transportation Industry

交通运输行业碳排放已成为我国第三大碳排放源,是我国未来“双碳”目标的主体和减排重点行业。通过全面梳理分析交通运输行业碳排放测算方法、影响因素、预测方法和减排措施等方面相关文献,结果发现:交通运输行业碳排放测算方法以排放因子法为主,交通行业碳排放影响因素研究主要采用因素分解模型、计量经济模型,交通行业碳排放预测主要采用时间序列模型、回归模型和系统动力学模型,交通行业碳减排措施主要包括技术减排措施、结构减排措施和制度减排措施。相关研究仍存在碳排放核算边界不统一、核算尺度较大、预测方法存在不足等问题,建议今后在碳排放核算边界统一、碳排放核算尺度细化和碳排放预测模型优化等方面开展进一步研究。

The carbon emissions of the transportation industry have become the third largest source of carbon emissions in China,and it is the main body of China's future"double carbon"goal and the key industry of emission reduction.Through a comprehensive review and analysis of the relevant literature on carbon emission measurement methods,influencing factors,forecasting methods and emission reduction measures in the transportation industry,the results show that:the carbon emission measurement method of the transportation industry is mainly based on emission factor method;factor decomposition model and econometric model are mainly used to study the influencing factors of carbon emission of the transportation industry;time series model,regression model and system dynamics model are mainly used to predict carbon emission of the transportation industry.Carbon emission reduction measures in the transportation industry mainly include technical emission reduction measures,structural emission reduction measures and institutional emission reduction measures.There are some problems in relevant studies,such as inconsistent carbon emission accounting boundary,large accounting scale and insufficient prediction methods.It is suggested that further research should be carried out in the aspects of carbon emission accounting boundary unification,carbon emission accounting scale refinement and carbon emission prediction model optimization in the future.