日照市海雾天气的特征分析与预报

Characteristic Analysis and Forecast of Sea Fog Weather in Rizhao City

文章利用地面及探空气象观测资料、海洋站观测资料、ERA再分析资料,统计了日照市1988—2019年每年4—7月的海雾过程。分析了产生海雾的天气形势及形成机理,提出了影响日照地区海雾天气生成的主要气象要素及其配合效用。结果表明:春夏季节,日照地区处于入海变性高压西部、太平洋副热带高压脊西部或低压前部等几类天气形势控制下时,最易产生平流海雾过程;天气形势控制下的风向与风速、露点温度、气温、海温、层结稳定等水文气象要素在海雾形成过程起到重要作用。在此基础上,利用Fisher二级判别分析方法建立海雾预报的判别方程。通过预报检验发现,文章提供的海雾统计学预报方法具有良好的预报能力,预报准确率在88%~94%之间。可用来进行短期日照市海雾特征预报,为日照的工农业、渔业生产以及海上和陆地交通运输等提供服务。

Large quantity of observational data from ground and sounding meteorological observation data,ocean station observation data,ERA reanalysis data are used to count the sea fog process that occurred during April to July in Rizhao City from 1988 to 2019 altogether 32 years in this paper.The synoptic characteristics of the sea fog and their formation mechanism are statistically analyzed,and furthermore the main meteorological elements affecting the formation of sea fog in Rizhao area and their combined effects are put forward.The results indicate that sea fog occur in Rizhao area is most likely under the control of several weather conditions,such as the west of transition high to sea,the Pacific subtropical high ridge or the front of low or trough of the eastern China in spring and summer.Under the control of these synoptic characteristics,the direction and speed of wind,dew-point temperature,atmospheric temperature,SST,stratification stability of these hydrometeorological elements play an important role in the formation of sea fog.On these basis,the method of discriminance analysis is used to establish of discriminant equation for sea fog forecast.Through the forecast testing,the statistical forecasting method of sea fog has a great application,the forecast accuracy is between 88%and 94%.It can be used for short-term forecast of sea fog characteristics in Rizhao City,providing services for industry,agriculture,fishery production,sea and land transportation.