上海市“十四五”规划绿色发展驱动因素研究

Research on the Driving Factors of Green Development in Shanghai During the 14th Five-Year Plan

本文首次以上海市“十四五”规划的视角,使用系统动力学方法研究上海市的绿色发展因素。首先确定了由经济、社会、环境、资源四个子系统交叉融合而构成上海市绿色发展系统,再基于系统动力学原理和上海市2012—2019年的数据构建上海市绿色发展模型,响应“十四五”规划在绿色发展方面设立的目标,构建多个未来发展情景并进行指标参数调控,依据各个情景的仿真结果,分析并总结了“十四五”规划背景下上海市的绿色发展特点。研究结果表明,影响绿色发展的关键因素由主到次依次为生态环境建设支出、研发支出、产业结构调整。相比于产业的投资结构调整,上海市对从业人员结构的调整可以高效平衡经济与环境的发展;加快科技创新可以在很大程度上抑制碳排放,从而快速实现上海市的“双碳”目标;针对化学污染物的治理,污染源防治不但十分有效,而且有利于持续性发展,这些措施应是上海市政府的首选。

In this paper,the green development factors of Shanghai from the perspective of the 14th Five-Year Plan are studied by the system dynamics approach for the first time.First,the green development system of Shanghai is determined by the cross-integration of the four subsystems of economy,society,environment and resources,and.then the green development model of Shanghai is constructed based on the principle of system dynamics and the data of Shanghai in 2012-2019.In response to the goals setting up in the 14th Five-Year Plan for green development,this paper builds multiple future development scenarios and regulates the index parameters.According to the simulation results of each scenario,the green development characteristics of Shanghai under the background of the 14th Five-year Plan are analyzed and summarized.The results show that the key factors affecting green development are ecological environment construction expenditure,research and development expenditure,and industrial structure adjustment.Compared with the industrial investment structure adjustment,the structure adjustment of employees in Shanghai can effectively balance the economic and environmental development.Accelerating scientific and technological innovation can largely suppress carbon emission,so as to quickly achieve the“double-carbon target”of Shanghai,For the treatment of chemical pollutants,the control of pollution sources is both effective and favorable for sustainable development,which should be the first choice of the Shanghai municipal government.