基于系统动力学城市公交出行供求响应关系研究

Research on Supply-Demand Response Relationship of Public Transportation Travel Based on System Dynamics

为揭示城市发展阶段公交出行与小汽车出行供求结构的变化,对城市公共交通出行需求与供给资源分配展开研究。在交通供求理论基础上,以大连市为例,并以小汽车交通与公共交通需求情况和道路交通资源作为研究对象,构建公交出行供求响应关系系统动力学模型并建立量化方程。采用Venism软件模拟数据,得出大连市发展轨道交通后的阶段出行需求与道路供给的动态变化,其关系表明公共交通能在其间起到重要的调控作用。同时得到了小汽车和公共交通与出行需求间较为理想的出行结构关系与不同阶段出行结构分担比例的动态演变关系。

In order to reveal the changes of the supply-demand structure of public and private transportation travel in the stage of urban development,the allocation of supply-demand resources for urban public transportation travel are studied.Based on traffic supply-demand theory,taking the demand situation of urban private and public transportation as the research object and taking Dalian as an example,the system dynamics model of transit supply and demand response relationship and quantitative equations are established.Using Vensim software to simulate data,the dynamic changes of travel demand and road supply in Dalian after the construction of metro are obtained,which verifies that public transportation can play an important role in regulation.Meanwhile the ideal travel structure relationship between cars and public transportation travel demand is obtained,the dynamic evolution relationship of the travel structure sharing ratio at different stages is analyzed.Some suggestions on the public transportation development are proposed.