基于模糊ISM的铁路机务行车安全风险关联性分析

Traffic Safety Risk Correlation Analysis of Railway Locomotive System Based on Fuzzy ISM Model

为提升铁路机务行车安全能力,保障铁路运输牵引动力的可靠性,首先,基于对某路局机务系统安全风险问题库的统计分析,提取出了5类共18项导致该类事故发生的致因要素,以此类要素作为评价铁路机务行车安全的风险指标;其次,运用改进的解释结构模型,建立了各风险因素间的邻接矩阵和可达矩阵,绘制了影响机务行车安全的各类风险因素演化过程的解释结构图;最后,结合对风险因素及其演化路径的剖析,找出了风险因素间的层级关联关系。研究结果表明:机车疲劳驾驶、机车火灾、车辆伤害等是影响机务行车安全的最直接因素;设备标准执行力、检修标准执行力是影响机务行车安全的间接因素;而制度执行力和管理执行力是影响机务行车安全的最深层次因素。

In order to improve the safety ability of railway locomotive operation and ensure the reliability of railway traction power,firstly,based on the statistical analysis of the safety risk database of locomotive system in a railway bureau,five categories of 18 factors leading to such accidents are extracted as the risk index of railway locomotive operation safety;Then,by using the improved interpretative structure model,the adjacency matrix and reachability matrix of each risk factor are established,and the interpretative structure chart of the evolution process of various risk factors affecting locomotive driving safety is drawn;Finally,combined with the analysis of risk factors and their evolution path,the hierarchical relationship between risk factors is found.The results show that locomotive fatigue driving,locomotive fire and vehicle injury are the most direct factors affecting locomotive driving;execution of equipment standards and execution of maintenance standards are indirect factors that affect locomotive driving safety;The system execution and Management execution are the most profound factors affecting the locomotive driving safety.