财政纵向失衡的健康效应——来自全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的证据

The Health Effects of Vertical Fiscal Imbalances:Evidence from CMDS Data

基于人口流动背景,将全国流动人口动态监测调查数据与城市宏观数据相匹配,设计Ordered-Probit等模型探究财政纵向失衡的健康效应。研究发现:第一,财政纵向失衡程度降低会显著提升流动人口健康水平,财政转移支付对于二者之间的负向关系存在显著的正向调节效应,且这一结论通过了系列稳健性检验和内生性讨论;第二,财政纵向失衡对流动人口健康的影响在人口净流入城市、低学历流动人口、中青年流动人口群体中更加显著;第三,财政纵向失衡会通过显著改变医疗卫生支出占比和医疗卫生服务供给效率而影响流动人口健康;第四,财政纵向失衡程度与流动人口健康水平之间存在显著的门槛效应,不同区间的财政纵向失衡对流动人口健康影响程度存在差异。

Based on the background of population flow,this paper matches the dynamic monitoring data of CMDS with the urban macro data,and designs the Ordered Probit model to explore the health effects of fiscal vertical imbalance.The findings are as follows:First,the reduction of fiscal vertical imbalance will significantly improve the health level of the floating population;fiscal transfer payments have a significant positive moderating effect on the negative relationship between them;and the conclusion has passed a series of robustness tests and endogeneity discussion.Second,the impact of fiscal vertical imbalance on the health of floating population is more significant in the cities of net inflow of population,the less-educated floating population,and the young and middleaged floating population.Third,fiscal vertical imbalance will affect the health of floating population by significantly changing the proportion of medical and health expenditure and the efficiency of medical and health service supply.And fourth,the results of further analysis show that there is a significant threshold effect between the degree of fiscal vertical imbalance and the health level of the floating population,and the impact of different regions of fiscal vertical imbalance on the health of the floating population is different.The research results have certain reference value for further promoting the equalization of basic public services and improving the permanent provision of basic public services.