“双碳”目标下哈长城市群综合承载力评价及时空演变特征

Evaluation and Spatial Evolution of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Harbin-Changchun City Cluster under the"Dual Carbon"Goal

通过构建“双碳”目标下哈长城市群综合承载力评价指标体系,并利用熵值法对2011~2020年哈长城市群综合承载力进行测度评价,进而利用空间自相关分析方法对其综合承载力的时空演变特征进行具体分析。研究表明:2011~2020年,哈长城市群综合承载力水平呈上升趋势,城市空间差异明显,综合承载力水平在空间分布上呈现出H-H和L-L集聚特征,西南弱周边强的特征也较为明显。因此,提升哈长城市群综合承载力必须强化顶层设计,提升城市协同发展能力;经济发展和生态保护并重;加大中心城市建设,提高中心城市的辐射带动能力;构建哈长城市群统一大市场,打破市场分割,进而为“双碳”目标的实现助力。

The article constructs an evaluation index system for the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Harbin-Changchun City Cluster under the"dual carbon"goal,and uses the entropy method to measure and evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city cluster from 2011 to 2020.The spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of its comprehensive carrying capacity.Research shows that the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Harbin-Changchun City cluster from 2011 to 2020 had an upward trend and significant urban spatial differences.The capacity level shows H-H and L-L clustering characteristics in spatial distribution,and the weak southwest and strong surrounding areas are also obvious.In order to increase the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Harbin-Changchun City Cluster and provide assistance for the achievement of the"dual carbon"goal,following policies should be carried out:strengthen toplevel design to enhance the city's collaborative development capacity,emphasize on economic development and ecological protection equally,strengthen the construction of central cities and enhance their radiative and driving capacity,and build a unified large market and break market segmentation.