数字化、承接产业转移与东盟参与全球生产网络——兼论中国的应对策略

Digitalization,Industrial Transfer and ASEAN's Participation in GPNs:On China's Response Strategy

受贸易保护主义、逆全球化浪潮兴起和乌克兰危机等持续的影响,全球产业链与供应链潜藏的各种风险不断显现,基于产品内分工的全球生产网络正发生着深刻的调整与变革。与此同时,数字经济的迅猛发展与数字服务贸易的逆势增长,为全球生产网络演进注入了新动能。东盟国家中,新加坡、马来西亚和菲律宾的数字化水平相对较高,泰国、印度尼西亚和越南的相对较低。东盟承接全球产业转移增长态势明显,且逐渐由加工组装环节向简单的半成品和复杂零部件生产环节升级,虽然参与全球生产网络分工程度较高,但参与分工模式仍以后向嵌入为主,分工地位呈大幅下降趋势,有被低端锁定的风险。2008年全球金融危机和之后的发达国家再工业化政策及全球新冠疫情对东盟承接产业转移和参与全球生产网络的影响日渐式微,而数字化成为影响参与全球生产网络的长期因素。随着数字化水平的不断提升,高数字化水平国家承接中间需求驱动型和出口需求驱动型产业转移规模与分工地位均不断提升,而数字化水平相对较低的国家承接产业转移、分工地位均与数字化基本呈反方向变动趋势。中国的数字化水平低于新加坡、马来西亚和菲律宾,但承接全球产业转移规模更大,且与东盟双向产业转移格局明显。中国制造业全球生产网络参与度低于东盟6国,但参与分工模式已由后向嵌入升级到前向嵌入,分工地位不断提升,已跳出低端锁定困局。未来中国应促进与东盟各国的数字战略协同,推动数字赋能,促进中高端产业承接规模扩大,助推参与分工模式升级与分工地位进一步提升,并积极利用RCEP全面生效实施、中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判及“一带一路”迈向金色十年等契机,促进中国—东盟区域内价值链合作,助力全球价值链数字化与绿色化双转型,为加快构建更为紧密的中国—东盟命运共同体奠定坚实基础。

With the rise of trade protectionism and anti-globalization and the continuous intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in recent years,the hidden risks of the global industrial chain and supply chain continue to emerge,and the global production networks(GPNs)based on the division of labor within products is undergoing profound adjustment and reform.At the same time,the rapid development of the digital economy and the contrarian growth of digital service trade have injected new momentum into the evolution of GPNs.Among ASEAN countries,Singapore,Malaysia and the Philippines have relatively high levels of digitalization,while Thailand,Indonesia and Vietnam relatively low levels.ASEAN has demonstrated an obvious growth trend in undertaking global industrial transfer with gradual upgrading from processing and assembly to simple semi-finished products and complex parts production.From the perspective of division of labor,ASEAN is highly involved in theGPNs,but backward embedding remains dominant,leading to the decline of ASEAN's status in this regard with the risk of being locked in the low-end.The global financial crisisbroke out in 2008.Since then,the impact of reindustrialization in the developed countries and COVID-19 on ASEAN's industrial transfer and participation in the GPNs has gradually declined,and digitalization has become a long-term factor affecting the participation in the GPNs.With the continuousadvancement of digitalization,countries with highdigitalizationlevels undertake more and more intermediate demand-driven and export demand-driven industrial transfer,makingthe division of labor more and more important while countries with relatively low digitalization levels are basically in the opposite direction of digitalization.China's digitalization level is lower than Singapore,Malaysia and the Philippines,but it undertakesthe global industrial transfer on a larger scale withan obvious pattern of two-way industrial transfer with ASEAN.The participation of China's manufacturing industry in the GPNs is lower than that of the six ASEAN countries,however,the division of labor,which tends to be increasingly important,has been upgraded from backward embedding to forward embedding and run out of the low-end predicament.In the future,China should promote digital strategic coordination with ASEAN countries,accelerate digital empowerment for the expansion of medium-and high-end industrial transfer,and boost the upgrading of participation in the labor division and further improve its status.Meanwhile,China should also actively make use of the opportunities,such as the full implementation ofRCEP,negotiations on Version 3.0 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the golden decade of BRl,to promote China-ASEAN value chain cooperation within the region,facilitate the digital and green transformation of the global value chain,and lay a solid foundation for accelerating the building of a closer China-ASEAN community of shared future.