基于GA-XGBoost模型对社会消费品零售总额的影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Infl uencing Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Based on the GA-XGBoost Model

随着我国经济转变为高质量发展,社会消费品零售总额作为体现我国当前内需的关键指标,研究其影响因素及未来趋势依旧是消费领域的关键问题。本文以社会消费品零售总额为因变量,从消费需求、商品供给、货币金融、消费环境和交通运输五大方面选取12个指标作为研究自变量,构建XGBoost回归与SHAP模型对因变量进行分析,以及GA-XGBoost回归模型进行预测。研究发现:(1)货币和准货币供应量期末值、国内生产总值、货币供应量期末值、固定资产投资额累计增长率、国家财政收入、国家财政支出等对社会消费品零售总额影响最大;(2)除了固定资产投资额累计增长率对社会消费品零售额是负向影响外,其他五个均对社会消费品零售额是正向影响。本文以机器学习、遗传算法、可解释方法等理论模型解释了影响社会消费品零售总额的几大因素,为研究经济领域影响因素拓展了新的模型研究方法,并根据实证分析为我国经济发展提供了相应的建议,以供参考。

As China’s economy enters high-quality development,total retail sales of consumer goods,as a key indicator reflecting China’s domestic demands at present,the study of whose influencing factors and future trends remains a key issue in the field of consumption.This paper takes total retail sales of consumer goods as the dependent variable,selects 12 indicators from the five aspects of consumer demands,commodity supply,money and finance,consumer environment and transport as the independent variables of the study,and constructs XGBoost regression and SHAP models to analyze the dependent variables,as well as the GA-XGBoost regression model to make predictions.It is found that:(1)the end value of monetary and quasi-money supply,GDP,the end value of money supply,the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment,national fiscal revenue,and national fiscal expenditure have the greatest impact on total retail sales of consumer goods;(2)except for the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment,which harms retail sales of consumer goods,the other five have a positive impact on retail sales of consumer goods.This paper explains factors affecting the total retail sales of social consumer goods with theoretical models such as machine learning,genetic algorithms,and explainable methods,expands new model research methods for studying the influencing factors in the field of economy,and provides corresponding suggestions for China’s economic development based on empirical analyses for reference.