基于突变理论的湟水河流域崩滑易发性评价

Assessment of landslide susceptibility in the Huangshui River Basin based on catastrophe theory

湟水河流域是黄河上游重要支流,是青海省政治经济文化中心,也是全省地质灾害高发区域。流域内灾害种类多,发生频率高,经济损失和人员伤亡较大。流域内地质灾害分布有一定地域特征,通过对湟水河流域地形地貌、地质岩组、地质构造、水文气象、人类工程活动分析,构建了地质灾害易发性划分标准,将湟水河流域崩滑灾害易发性分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、极低易发区5个等级。基于MATLAB编程的突变级数理论平台,充分考虑了各评价因子的内在关系,将单点灾害危险性评价扩展到区域灾害易发性评价。通过ROC对评价结果验证表明,该方法准确率高,可为地质灾害防治提供理论支持。

The Huangshui River Basin,an important upstream tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River,serves as the political,economic,and cultural center of Qinghai Province,and is also a region with a high incidence of geological disasters.Within this basin,various types of disasters occur frequently,resulting in significant economic losses and casualties.These disasters also exhibit distinct regional characteristics.Based on the analysis of landform,geological rock group,geological structure,hydrometeorology and human engineering activities in the Huangshui River Basin,the comprehensive classification standard of geological disaster susceptibility was established,and the susceptibility of landslide disaster in the Huangshui River Basin was categorized into five levels:extremely high,high,medium,low and very low.Using a matlab-based platform for catastrophe theory,the inherent relationships among various assessment factors are fully considered,and the single-point disaster risk evaluation is extended to regional disaster susceptibility evaluation.Validation of the assessment results through ROC analysis demonstrates the high accuracy of this method,providing theoretical support for geological disaster prevention and control.