贵阳地区气候季节变化对心脑血管发病人数占比的影响研究

The Influence of Seasonal Changes of Climate on the Proportion of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Patients in Guiyang City

利用1961—2020年贵阳市所辖8个地面站点逐日气象观测资料,根据中国气象行业气候季节划分标准(QX/T152—2012)对其进行气候季节划分并分析季节漂移现象,基于“黄金分割率”的人体舒适度计算方法分析贵阳地区人体舒适度等级变化,结合贵阳地区2016—2020年心脑血管疾病发病人数门诊资料就当地气候季节漂移和舒适度等级变化对居民心脑血管疾病发病人数占比影响进行探究。结果表明:(1)贵阳地区春季的起止时间呈提前态势,秋季的起止时间有推迟态势,由此造成当地夏季正逐渐延长,冬季正逐渐缩短,从年代际看,夏季从44 d增加到76 d,冬季从130 d缩短到100 d;春季和秋季在长度上无明显变化,但在时间段上有漂移现象,经计算,春季的起始时间漂移度为16.3%,结束时间漂移度为18.3%,秋季的起始时间漂移度为25.6%,结束时间漂移度为14.6%。(2)贵阳地区夏季心脑血管疾病发病人数日占比为0.24%,冬季发病人数日占比为0.31%,随着气候变暖造成的夏季增长、冬季缩短,对贵阳地区居民心脑血管疾病发病人数占-1.62%;不同舒适域等级日数的改变对心脑血管发病人数占-0.87%,两者均表明,全球变暖所导致的气候季节和舒适度等级变化均对贵阳地区居民心脑血管疾病发病人数占比有降低效应。

Using the daily meteorological observation data of eight ground stations of Guiyang City from 1961 to 2020,it was divided into seasonal climates and its seasonal drift phenomenon was analyzed according to the climate seasonal division standard of Chinese Meteorological Industry(QX/T152—2012).The change of human comfort level in Guiyang area was also analyzed by the human comfort calculation method based on the“golden ratio”.Then combining with the outpatient data on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Guiyang from 2016 to 2020,the impact of local climate,seasonal drift and comfort level changes on the proportion of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were explored.The results showed that:(1)The start and end time of spring showed an early trend,and the start and end time of autumn had a backward trend in Guiyang city,resulting the time in summer was gradually increasing,and the time in winter was gradually shortening.From the perspective of the interdecadal,summer increased from 44 d to 76 d and winter shortened from 130 d to 100 d.There was no significant change in length in spring and autumn,but there was drift in time period.The start time drift was 16.3%and the end time drift was 18.3%in spring,the start time drift was 25.6%and the end time drift was 14.6%in autumn.(2)The daily proportion of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was 0.24%in Guiyang,and the daily proportion of winter cases was 0.31%.With the increase of summer length and shortening of winter length caused by climate warming,the proportion of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was-1.62%in Guiyang.The effect of the changing of the number of days with different comfort levels on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was-0.87%.These all showed that the changes in climate season and comfort level caused by global warming had a reducing effect on the proportion of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Guiyang.