北约新兴与颠覆性技术趋势评估及启示——基于北约《2023—2043科技趋势》报告的分析

Assessment of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies Trends in NATO and Its Implications:Based on Analysis of NATO's Science&Technology Trends 2023-2043 Report

[研究目的]基于对北约《2023—2043科技趋势》报告的剖析,总结归纳北约国防科技情报工作的显著特点和有益经验,为进一步增强我国国防科技情报工作的时代性、针对性、有效性提供参考建议。[研究方法]采用内容分析、文献研究等方法,对报告文本进行深入剖析,从环境背景、逻辑架构、组合影响、驱动因素等层面进行梳理提炼,并据此提出优化我国国防科技情报工作的启示建议。[研究结论]应尝试建立国防科技情报工作的统筹协调机制,前沿科技预测更加注意安全环境变化的影响,用融合式思维指导技术预见工作,进一步增强情报工作的决策支持功能,主动对接技术发展与未来应用,更好促进我国国防科技情报工作转型发展。

[Research purpose]Based on the analysis of NATO's Science&Technology Trends 2023-2043 Report,this paper summarizes the significant characteristics and positive experience of NATO's national defense science and technology intelligence(NDSTI)work,and provides reference suggestions for further enhancing the timeliness,pertinence and effectiveness of China's NDSTI work.[Research method]By means of content analysis,literature research and other methods,this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the report text,combing and refining from the aspects of environmental background,logical structure,combination influence,driving factors,etc.,and puts forward suggestions on optimizing the work of NDSTI.[Research conclusion]An overall coordination mechanism for NDSTI work should be established;the prediction of frontier science and technology should pay more attention to the impact of changes in the security environment,guide the technology prediction work with integrated thinking,further enhance the decision-making support function of intelligence work,take the initiative to connect the development of technology with future applications,and better promote the transformation and development of NDSTI work in China.