青年理想与实际的初育年龄

Ideal and Actual Age at First Birth among Married Youth

文章聚焦初育推迟现象,运用2021年“低生育率背景下育龄家庭的生育机制与生育支持研究”全国抽样调查数据,分析20—44岁已育青年理想与实际初育年龄的差距,并重点关注生活稳定性的影响。研究发现,约一半已育青年的实际初育年龄晚于理想初育年龄,初育推迟普遍存在。生活是否稳定对初育推迟有显著影响,其中拥有自有住房、较高家庭收入有助于降低初育推迟的可能性,而体制内工作则会提高初育推迟的可能性。异质性分析发现,生活稳定性的影响在较高受教育程度、非农户口青年中更为明显。帮助青年群体实现生育理想,破解被动性初育推迟难题,需明确政策重点人群,强调精准施策。

Starting from the general trend of later childbearing,this paper explored the gap between ideal and actual age at first birth among the married youth(aged 20 to 44).In particular,we focused on the effects of life stability.Using data from“Fertility Mechanism and Fertility Support for Families of Childbearing Age in a Low Fertility Context,2021”,we found that about half of the married youth had their first births later than the ideal ages of parenthood.Childbearing delay was closely associated with life stability.Specifically,owing one’s own house and higher family income delayed one’s entry into parenthood,yet working in state sector facilitated childbearing.Heterogeneity analysis showed stronger effects among the higher educated and those with non-agricultural hukou.Together,the results suggested targeted policies,so as to help the realization of fertility intention for the younger generation.