基于AHP-SEM的灌区工程建设管理风险评估研究

Risk Assessment of Irrigation District Project Construction Management Based on AHP-SEM

为了精细化灌区风险识别,减少事故的发生几率,采用层次分析法(AHP)与结构方程模型(SEM)相结合的方法,构建AHP-SEM量化评价模型,探讨灌区各风险因素之间的作用机理。结果表明,在灌区风险管理一级风险指标中,设计风险所占评估权重最大,其次是管理风险、采购风险、施工风险、个人风险、社会风险,主要建筑物风险、环境风险。根据一级风险指标进一步细化二级指标,得出二级指标影响程度,确定风险的大小。研究结果对灌区工程建设部门有效规避风险具有指导意义。

In order to refine the identification of irrigation area risks and reduce the probability of accidents.This study used the combination of analytic hierarchy process and structural equation modeling to construct an AHP-SEM quantitative evaluation model to explore the mechanism of action between various risk factors in irrigation areas.The results show that among the primary risk indicators of irrigation area risk management,design risk has the largest evaluation weight,followed by management risk,procurement risk,construction risk,personal risk,social risk,main building risk,and environmental risk.Further refine the secondary indicators based on the primary risk indicators to obtain the impact degree of the secondary indicators and determine the magnitude of the risk.The research results could guide the irrigation area engineering construction department to avoid risks.