科技创新与城市韧性耦合协调演化研究——以珠三角城市群为例

Study on the coupled and coordinated evolution of science and technology innovation and urban resilience:the case of Pearl River Delta city cluster

基于2010—2020年市级面板数据,构建耦合协调模型,深入探讨珠三角科技创新与城市韧性耦合协调水平的时空演变特征。研究结果显示:就城市韧性水平而言,珠三角城市群整体呈现波动上升趋势,各城市间内部差异明显,形塑出“中间高,东西边缘低”的空间分布格局;在科技创新水平方面,珠三角城市群总体上呈波浪式上升态势,区域内部地带性差异显著,形成以广州、深圳为中心的圈层式发展模式;珠三角城市群科技创新与城市韧性之间耦合协调度总体缓慢上升,实现了由失调到相对协调的跨越,但各市绝对数值有待进一步提高,除深圳外其余八市均处于勉强/初级协调阶段,城际之间分化明显,形成了“中心—外围”的圈层格局。据此从推进两系统自身发展、制定两者耦合协调发展规划、缩小区域发展差距三个维度提出对策建议。

Based on the municipal panel data from 2010 to 2020,a coupling coordination model was constructed to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling coordination level of science and technology innovation(STI)and urban resilience in the Pearl River Delta(PRD).The conclusion shows In terms of urban resilience,the PRD city cluster as a whole shows a fluctuating upward trend,with obvious internal differences among cities,creating a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the middle and low at the eastern and western edges”.In terms of the level of STI,the PRD city cluster as a whole shows a wave-like upward trend,with significant differences within the region,forming a circling development pattern centered on Guangzhou and Shenzhen.The degree of coupling and coordination between STI and urban resilience in PRD city clusters has generally risen slowly,realizing the leap from dissonance to relative coordination.However,the absolute values of each city need to be further improved,and the remaining eight cities except Shenzhen are at the stage of barely/primary coordination.Intercity differentiation is obvious,forming a“center-periphery”circle pattern.Finally,this paper constructs a policy system from the three dimensions of promoting the development of the two systems themselves,formulating the coupled and coordinated development plan of the two,and narrowing the regional development gap.