中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家农业直接投资风险评价体系构建及评价

Chinese Enterprises’Agricultural Outward Direct Investment Risks in Countries along the“Belt and Road”Evaluation System Construction and Evaluation

科学评价中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家农业直接投资环境,是防范化解中国企业对外农业直接投资风险、保障海外农业投资利益的重要举措。本文基于有效市场假说,构建了中国投资本位和农业产业视角下中国对“一带一路”沿线国家农业直接投资风险的评价体系,基于熵权-TOPSIS法对55个“一带一路”沿线国家2016—2020年的农业直接投资风险进行了评价。研究发现:①中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家农业直接投资风险随时间推移整体呈上升趋势,农业投资环境趋向越来越不稳定;各大洲农业直接投资风险整体呈现亚洲<南美洲<非洲,并表现出一定的空间相关性,因此实施海外农业投资风险防范管理不能忽视风险的空间溢出效应;区域风险水平上,重点大洲(亚洲)投资风险呈现西亚>南亚>东南亚>东亚>中亚。②若继续沿用西方机构主导的评级体系则对中低等收入国家和低收入国家的农业直接投资风险存在高估,以此会错失广大收入层次较低的发展中国家的投资机遇,建立符合中国企业对外农业投资本位特征的风险评级体系是必要且迫切的。③现阶段中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家农业直接投资依然存在“投资悖论”现象,但“投资悖论”占比相对较低,“高风险大投资”的现象多存在于非洲地区国家。

Scientific evaluation of the agricultural direct investment environment of Chinese enterprises in countries along the“Belt and Road”is an important measure to prevent and resolve the risks of Chinese enterprises’foreign agricultural direct investment and protect the interests of overseas agricultural investment.Based on the effective market hypothesis,this paper constructs an evaluation system for the agricultural direct investment risks of countries along the“Belt and Road”from the perspective of China’s investment standard and agricultural industry,and evaluates the agricultural direct investment risks of 55“Belt and Road”countries from 2016-2020 based on the entropy right-TOPSIS method.The study found that:①The risk of agricultural direct investment of Chinese enterprises in countries along the“Belt and Road”is on the rise over time.Agricultural investment environment tends to be more and more unstable.The overall risk of Asia<South America<Africa,and exhibit some spatial correlation.Therefore,the implementation of overseas agricultural investment risk prevention and management can not ignore the spatial spillover effect of risk.At the regional risk level,key continents(Asia)investment risk presented in West Asia>South Asia>Southeast Asia>East Asia>Central Asia.②If the rating system led by western institutions continues to follow,the risk of agricultural investment in middle and low income countries and low income countries is overestimated,this will miss the investment opportunities in developing countries with lower income levels.It is necessary and urgent to establish a risk rating system in line with the standard characteristics of Chinese enterprises’foreign agricultural investment.③At the present stage,there is still an“investment paradox”of Chinese enterprises’agricultural direct investment in countries along the“Belt and Road”,but the investment paradox has a relatively low proportion,the phenomenon of“high risk-big investment”is mostly found in African countries.