伊犁河谷地区草地畜牧业生态效率测度及影响因素研究

Study on measurement and influencing factors of ecological efficiency of grassland animal husbandry in Ili River Valley

草原牧区承载牧民生产生计和生态系统多样性的多重功能,随着草畜矛盾、超载过牧及治理缺失而导致生态功能逐渐丧失,生态效率研究备受关注。为了解伊犁河谷地区草地畜牧业的生态效率,进一步促进农牧区的生态可持续发展,本研究运用超效率基于能量模型(energy based models,EBM)测算伊犁河谷地区2001—2020年草地畜牧业的生态效率,利用Malmquist指数法分析草地畜牧业平均生态效率各要素间的动态变化,借助Tobit模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:伊犁河谷地区2001—2020年草地畜牧业生态效率总体呈波动上升趋势,从0.835上升到1.147;2001—2003年,各县之间差距较大,新源县生态效率最高达1.579,昭苏县生态效率最低为0.539,随着时间推移各县生态效率差距逐渐缩小。伊犁河谷地区草地畜牧业生态效率在空间上两极分化局面明显且区域差异逐渐缩小,呈现出“参差聚集”的“俱乐部式”收敛格局,生态效率整体向好发展。技术进步是驱动全要素生产率增长和生态效率提高的关键因素,科技水平的滞后制约了该地区草地畜牧业的发展进程。全年日照时数、畜牧业产业化水平、年末旅游总人数和政策辐射效应是影响生态效率的主要因素。因此,笔者建议政府应坚持以绿色生态为首位,合理规划牧草建设用地,建立生态补偿与可持续发展联动机制,重视草地畜牧业科技普及推广,并通过合理配置资源要素提升区域内各要素间的集聚能力和利用效率。

Grassland pasture carries multiple functions of herders'production and livelihood and ecosystem diversity,but with the gradual loss of ecological functions due to grass-livestock conflicts,overloading and overgrazing,and lack of management,the study of eco-efficiency has attracted much attention.To understand the ecological efficiency of grassland animal husbandry in Ili River Valley,and to further promote the ecological sustainable development of agricultural and pastoral areas,in this study,the super-efficiency energy based models(EBM)was used to measure the ecological efficiency of grassland animal husbandry in Ili River Valley from 2001 to 2020.Malmquist index was used to analyze the dynamic changes of the average ecological fficiency of grassland animal husbandry,and Tobit model was used to analyze the influencing factors.The results showed that from 2001 to 2020,the ecological efficiency of grassland animal husbandry in the li River Valley showed an overll fluctuating upward trend,rising from 0.835 to 1.147.From 2001 to 2003,there was a large gap among counties,with the highest ecological efficiency reaching 1.579 in Xinyuan County and the lowest ecological eficiency reaching 0.539 in Zhaosu County.The eco-efficiency gap between counties was gradually narrowing.The spatial polarization of ecological efficiency of grassland animal husbandry in Ili River Valley was obvious,and the regional differences were gradually reduced,showing a"club"convergence pattern of"uneven aggregation",and the ecological efficiency was developing well on the whole.Technological progress was the key factor driving the growth of total factor productivity and the improvement of ecological efficiency.The lag of scientific and technological level restricted the development process of grassland animal husbandry in this area.The sunshine hours,the level of animal husbandry industrialization,the total number of tourists at the end of the year and the radiation effect of policies were the main factors affecting the ecological efficiency.Therefore,the author suggested that the government should take green ecology as the first priority,rationally plan pasture construction land,establish a linkage mechanism between ecological compensation and sustainable development,pay attention to the popularization and promotion of grassland animal husbandry science and technology,and improve the agglomeration ability and utilization efficiency of various factors in the region through reasonable allocation of resourceelements.