长三角绿色低碳循环发展的时空格局及系统耦合协调评价

DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2023.11.004 Spatiotemporal Pattern and System Coupling Coordination Evaluation of Green and Low-carbon Cycle Development in the Yangtze River Delta

基于三维指标体系和长三角41个城市面板数据,运用主成分分析法测度长三角绿色低碳循环发展指数,使用Kernel密度法和Markov转移概率矩阵等方法,揭示长三角绿色低碳循环发展的动态演进规律和发展等级变动特征,采用耦合协调度模型评价子系统间相互关联性。研究发现:①长三角绿色低碳循环发展水平整体呈上升趋势,子系统指数大小次序为:循环发展>低碳发展>绿色发展;上海市绿色低碳循环发展水平最高,其后的排名依次是浙江、江苏和安徽。②长三角41个城市绿色低碳循环发展水平表现为从中心城市向边缘城市辐射,带动边缘城市逐步提升的变动规律;41个城市绿色低碳循环发展有多等级跨越的可能,其变动刚性不强,不易产生“马太效应”;长三角省际绿色低碳循环发展水平差距较小,但城市间差距有扩大趋势。③长三角绿色低碳循环耦合度高,但耦合协调度水平低,最高等级仅为临界协调。基于上述结论,进一步提升长三角区域绿色低碳循环发展水平,需着力弥补绿色发展短板,优化政府生态环境治理长效机制和加强区域生态治理高效协同。

Based on the three-dimensional index system and panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),this paper measures the green and low-carbon cycle development index of the YRD using the principal component analysis.It reveals the dynamic evolution regularity and rank change characteristics of the green and low-carbon cycle development in the YRD by the means of the Kernel density method and the Markov transfer probability matrix,and uses the coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the interconnection of its subsystems.It's found that:1)The level of green and low�carbon cycle development in the YRD region as a whole is on an upward trend,and the order of the subsystem indexes from high value to low value is cycle development,low-carbon development,green development respectively.The level of green and low-carbon cycle development in Shanghai is the highest,followed by Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Anhui.2)The level of green and low-carbon cycle development in 41 cities of the YRD shows the radiating characteristics,which is from central cities to peripheral cities and driving the gradual improvement of the peripheral cities.There is a possibility of multi-level leapfrogging in the green and low-carbon cycle development of the 41 cities and the rigidity of the change is not strong,so it is not easy to produce the"Matthew Effect".The inter-provincial gap in the level of green and low�carbon cycle development of the YRD is relatively small,but the gap between the cities tends to widen.3)The coupling degree of green and low-carbon cycle in the YRD region is high,but the highest level of coupling coordination is 0.523(belonging to the primary coordination).Based on the above conclusions,to further enhance the level of green and low�carbon cycle development in the YRD region,it should make up for the shortcomings of green development,optimize the long-term effectiveness of the government's ecological and environmental governance,and strengthen the efficient synergy of regional ecological governance.