人口收缩视角下中国产业集聚与城市人口规模演化及其关系

Evolution of Industrial Agglomeration and Population Size and Their Relationship in China from the Perspective of Population Shrinkage

快速城市化背景下,中国的收缩型城市数量持续增加。文章利用第五、六、七次全国人口普查、市辖区人口、户籍人口、城区人口、LandScan与城市面板数据,对中国人口收缩型城市空间分布进行研究,并从产业集聚视角探究了收缩型城市的成因。①使用三次人口普查和LandScan数据研究发现,2010—2020年收缩型城市占比较2000—2010年增长54.65%,重度收缩型城市新增32个,东北地区收缩型城市数量增长最为显著,增幅达172.73%。使用市辖区人口、户籍人口和城区人口数据也得到了相似的结论。②2003—2020年收缩型城市产业多样化集聚水平呈下降态势,专业化集聚水平不断提升。③实证回归结果显示,收缩型城市产业集聚会影响城市人口规模,多样化集聚下降带来的人口规模负效应远超专业化集聚水平提升带来的人口规模正效应。研究结论可为中国城市建设和产业政策制定提供参考依据。

Under the background of rapid urbanization,the number of shrinking cities in China continues to increase.Based on the relevant population data,the LandScan data and the urban Panel data,this paper analyzes the spatial distribution of shrinking cities in China,and explores the causes of shrinking cities from the perspective of industrial agglomeration.1)Based on three national population censuses and the LandScan data,it was found that from 2010 to 2020,the proportion of shrinking cities increased by 54.65%compared with 2000 to 2010,with 32 new severe shrinking cities added.The number of shrinking cities increased the most significantly in northeast China,with an increase of 172.73%.It has similar conclusions according to the population data of the municipal jurisdiction,registered residence population data and urban population data.2)From 2003 to 2020,the level of diversified agglomeration in shrinking cities showed a downward trend,while the level of specialized agglomeration continued to improve.3)The empirical regression results show that the industrial agglomeration in shrinking cities affects the urban population size,and the negative effect of diversified agglomeration on population size far exceeds the positive effect of specialized agglomeration on population size.The research conclusions can provide theoretical basis for urban construction and industrial policy formulation in China.