东北地区农业碳排放特征与农业经济的脱钩状态分析

Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Northeast China and Its Decoupling State with Agricultural Economy

通过测算2010—2020年东北地区的农业碳排放量,分析其碳排放强度、碳排放结构,在此基础上采用TAPIO脱钩模型和LMDI模型分析其农业碳排放特征及影响因素。结果表明:2010—2020年东北地区农业总碳排放量呈现先增后降的变化趋势,由2010年的1.269×10^(8)t增长到2020年的1.3857×10^(8)t,增长量为1.161×10^(7)t;2010年东北三省的主要碳排放源依次为畜禽养殖、农用投入物质,2020年吉林主要碳排放源变更为农用投入物质、畜禽养殖;黑龙江、吉林、辽宁农业碳排放强度分别降低了24.82%、25.13%、28.00%;东北三省碳排放与农业经济发展水平正逐渐脱钩,黑龙江的脱钩状态为扩张连接—弱脱钩—扩张负脱钩—弱脱钩,吉林脱钩状态则表现为扩张连接—弱脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩,辽宁脱钩状态则是弱脱钩—强脱钩—强脱钩—强脱钩状态。地区经济发展水平和城镇化水平因子是东北三省农业碳排放量增长的促进因素,农村人口规模是东北三省碳排放的重要限制因素。基于以上结论,为保障东北三省农业可持续发展,未来各省应采取不同减排措施,实现低碳农业。

Exploring agricultural carbon emissions in northeast China is important for achieving low-carbon development of northeast China agriculture and ensuring food security.This article measures the agricultural carbon emissions in northeast China from 2010 to 2020,analyzes its carbon emissions intensity and carbon emissions structure.Based on the above,it uses the TAPIO decoupling model and the LMDI model to analyze characteristics and influencing factors of its agricultural carbon emission.The results show that:From 2010 to 2020,the total agricultural carbon emissions in northeast China show a trend of increasing and then decreasing,with an increase of 1.161×10^(7)t.In 2010,the main sources of carbon emissions in three provinces of northeast China were livestock farming and agricultural input materials in turn.In 2020,the main sources of carbon emissions in Jilin were agricultural input materials and livestock farming.The agricultural carbon emission intensity of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning reduced by 24.82%,25.13%and 28.00%respectively.Carbon emissions and the level of agricultural economic development in three provinces of northeast China are gradually decoupling.The decoupling status in Heilongjiang Province is expansionary connection-weak decouplingexpansionary negative decoupling-weak decoupling.The decoupling state in Jilin Province is expansionary connectionweak decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling.The decoupling state of Liaoning is weak decoupling-strong decoupling-strong decoupling-strong decoupling.Regional economic development level and urbanization level are the contributing factors to the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in three provinces of northeast China.The rural population size is the important inhibiting factor of carbon emission in three provinces of northeast China.Based on the above conclusions,in order to guarantee the sustainable development of agriculture in three provinces of northeast China,different emission reduction measures should be taken in each province in the future to achieve low-carbon agriculture.