流域生态补偿政策对受偿地区水污染强度的影响——以新安江流域为例

Impact of Watershed Eco-compensation Policy on Water Pollution Intensity in the Compensated Area:A Case Study of the Xin'an River Basin

以中国首个跨省流域生态补偿机制试点——新安江流域为研究对象,运用合成控制法评估新安江流域生态补偿政策对2012—2020年黄山市水污染强度的影响。研究发现:①新安江流域生态补偿政策有效降低了黄山市水污染强度,政策效果具有一定的持续性,但政策效果逐渐减弱。利用时间安慰剂、空间安慰剂等进行检验,结果表明研究结论具有较强的稳健性。②新安江流域生态补偿政策存在预期效益,初始政策效果在2010—2011年显现,前置于政策正式实施时间2012年。③2012—2014、2015—2017、2018—2020年新安江流域生态补偿政策的年均影响效应分别为-3.25、-1.64、-0.64,呈现逐轮递减趋势;边际效应存在明显的时间异质性,整体呈现倒“U”型变化。研究结果可以为流域生态补偿政策评估和制定提供决策参考,对提升流域治理现代化水平具有重要的现实意义。

Taking the Xin'an River basin,the first interprovincial watershed eco-compensation pilot in China,as the research object,this article uses the synthetic control method to evaluate the effect of eco-compensation policy in the Xin'an River basin on the water pollution intensity in Huangshan City from 2012 to 2020.The results show that:1)The Xin'an River basin eco-compensation policy effectively reduced the water pollution in Huangshan city,and the policy effect had a certain degree of sustainability,but the policy effect had gradually weakened.It uses the time placebo test,the space placebo test and other methods to verify the conclusions,the results showed that the conclusions had strong robustness.2)The eco-compensation policy of Xin'an River basin existed expected benefits,and the initial policy effect appeared in 2010-2011,before the official implementation time of the policy in 2012.3)The influence of the eco�compensation policies for the Xin'an River basin have been decreasing with the evidence that the annual policy effect in 2018-2020,2015-2017 and 2012-2014 was-0.64,-1.64 and-3.25 respectively.The marginal effect had obvious temporal heterogeneity,it overall showed inverted U-shaped changes.The research results can provide decision reference for the evaluation and formulation of eco-compensation policies in the basin,and have important practical significance for improving the modernization level of basin governance.