基于多项Logit模型的客运通道交通分担率研究

Research on Traffic Sharing Rate of Passenger Transport Corridor Based on Multi⁃Nominal Logit Model

近年来,我国高速铁路建设取得了历史性成就。为研究高速铁路建设对客运通道内其他交通方式分担率的影响,首先,以长三角地区旅客SP/RP调查数据为基础,构建多项Logit模型,对客运通道内各交通方式客运分担率进行预测;其次,对长三角地区沪宁、沪杭、宁杭和杭甬客运通道交通方式结构演化进行分析,并与预测模型进行对比。研究结果:随着高速铁路的开通运营,沪宁客运通道铁路客流分担率由40%增加至54.5%,沪杭客运通道铁路客流分担率由46.6%增加至64.7%,宁杭客运通道铁路客流分担率由14.4%增加至47.5%,杭甬客运通道的铁路客流分担率由31.4%增加至49.2%。

In recent years,China′s high⁃speed railway construction has made historic achievements.In order to research the impact of the construction of high⁃speed railway on the sharing rate of other traffic modes in the passenger transport corridor,firstly,based on the survey data of passenger SP/RP in the Yangtze River Delta,multi⁃nominal Logit models were built to predict the passenger sharing rate of various traffic modes in the passenger transport corridor.Secondly,the traffic mode structure evolution of Shanghai⁃Nanjing,Shanghai⁃Hangzhou,Nanjing⁃Hangzhou and Hangzhou⁃Ningbo passenger transport corridors in the Yangtze River Delta was analyzed and compared with the prediction model.The research results are as follows:after the opening and operation of high⁃speed railway,the sharing rate of railway passenger of the Shanghai⁃Nanjing passenger passage has increased from 40%to 54.5%,the sharing rate of railway passenger of the Shanghai⁃Hangzhou passenger passage has increased from 46.6%to 64.7%,the sharing rate of railway passenger of the Nanjing⁃Hangzhou passenger passage has increased from 14.4%to 47.5%,and the sharing rate of railway passenger of the Hangzhou⁃Ningbo passenger passage has increased from 31.4%to 49.2%.