基于最大熵模型的甘肃省蒙古黄芪潜在适生区预测及生态特征分析

Prediction of the Potential Habitat of Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province Based on the Maximum Entropy Model and Analysis on Its Ecological Characteristics

目的探究气候变化对甘肃省蒙古黄芪地理分布的影响,预测其潜在适生区,为甘肃省蒙古黄芪资源保护提供理论依据。方法基于实地调查的蒙古黄芪分布数据,采用最大熵模型和地理信息系统模拟当前(1970-2000)和未来(2041-2060)时期蒙古黄芪在甘肃省的潜在适生区,综合环境因子贡献率和刀切法检验结果评估影响蒙古黄芪分布的环境因子。结果影响甘肃省蒙古黄芪分布的主要环境因子有最湿月份降水量、最湿季度平均温度和海拔。当前气候条件下甘肃省蒙古黄芪潜在适生区面积为65902.66 km2,高适生区主要集中在定西市;未来时期SSP126、SSP370和SSP585情景下,甘肃省蒙古黄芪的适生区面积均呈缩小趋势,尤其是高适生区面积大幅缩小。结论未来气候变化导致甘肃省蒙古黄芪适生区大幅缩小,适生区主要向高海拔山区移动,可通过建立生态保护区保持蒙古黄芪资源连续性。

Objective To investigate the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province,and predict its potential habitat;To provide a theoretical basis for resource conservation of cultivation of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao.Methods Based on the distribution data of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao from field surveys,the maximum entropy model and geographic information system were used to simulate its potential habitat in Gansu Province for the current(1970-2000)and future(2041-2060)periods,and the contribution of environmental factors and the results of the knife-cut test were integrated to assess the important factors governing the distribution of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao.Results The dominant environmental variables governing the geographical distribution of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao were precipitation in the wettest month,average temperature in the wettest season,and elevation.The potential suitable area of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province under current climatic conditions was 65902.66 km2,and the high suitable area was mainly concentrated in Dingxi District.In the future period,the suitable areas of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao under the scenarios of SSP126,SSP370 and SSP585 all showed a decreasing trend,especially the area of the high suitable areas decreased significantly.Conclusion Future climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitable habitat for A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao in Gansu Province.The suitable habitat will mainly move towards high-altitude mountainous areas,and the continuity of A.membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao resources can be maintained by establishing ecological protection zones.