基于模糊集和DS证据理论的车辆运行风险评估方法

为评估卷烟物流送货车辆运行风险,同时针对风险评估过程中存在的不确定因素以及专家评价意见存在的主观性问题,通过模糊集理论和DS证据理论确定不同因素在不同风险等级的概率隶属值,引入层次分析法计算被评估送货车辆所面临的风险大小并对其进行分析。结果显示,将模糊集理论和DS证据理论应用到层次分析法,能够更全面地捕捉各种风险因素之间的关系,从而更准确地评估送货车辆运行风险。这一研究对于提高物流送货车辆运行风险评估的精度和可信度具有一定意义。

To evaluate the operational risks of cigarette logistics delivery vehicles,and to address the uncertainties in the risk assessment process and the subjectivity of expert evaluation opinions,the probability membership values of different factors at different risk levels are determined using fuzzy set theory and DS evidence theory.The analytic hierarchy process is introduced to calculate the risks faced by the evaluated delivery vehicles and analyze them.The results show that applying fuzzy set theory and DS evidence theory in the anlystic hierarchy process can more comprehensively capture the relationships between various risk factors.The study has certain significance in improving the accuracy and realiability of the operational risks assessment for logistics delivery vehicles.