交通规划背景下福州市土地利用与碳储量变化模拟及其启示

Simulation and elicitation of land use and carbon storage changes in Fuzhou under the background of traffic planning

陆地生态系统碳储量演变过程与土地利用变化息息相关,而交通规划政策往往对未来土地利用变化格局起到重要的导向作用,然而当前考虑交通规划情景对土地利用变化及其碳储量影响的研究较少。鉴于此,以福州市为例,基于PLUS模型模拟自然发展情景(A1)、交通规划情景(A2)和生态保护情景(A3)下的2030年土地利用空间分布特征,进一步运用InVEST模型测算碳储量,分析交通规划对土地利用变化及碳储量的影响。结果表明:(1)福州市2000—2020年间耕地面积大幅下降(239.25 km^(2)),建设用地成倍扩张(423.34 km^(2)),林地面积呈现小幅度下降趋势;(2)PLUS模型在福州市具有较高的适用性,Kappa系数为0.928;(3)交通规划情景下,总体耕地转出区域得到优化,相比自然发展情景,转为建设用地的面积减少(1.90 km^(2)),转为林地的面积增加(1.89 km^(2)),未利用土地也在交通规划情景得到最优配置;(4)交通规划情景下,生态系统的总碳储量比2020年减少了32.84 t,仍比自然发展情景多储存2.25 t,但比生态保护情景多流失49.91 t;(5)空间自相关结果表明三种情景的碳储量均存在较大的空间正相关性,碳储量高值区域在福州市西北部呈现聚集状态,低值区域主要聚集在闽江流域和临海地区。PLUS模型和InVEST模型的结合,实现了对未来碳储量的精准预测,可为优化区域国土空间规划、提升碳储存能力提供科学参考。

The evolution of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to land use change,while transportation planning policies often play a crucial role in guiding future land use change patterns.However,limited research has been conducted on the effects of considering transportation planning scenarios on land use change and carbon storage.In this study,we took Fuzhou city as an example and used the PLUS model to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of land use in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development(A1),transportation planning(A2),and ecological conservation(A3).We further utilized the InVEST model to estimate carbon storage and analyze the impact of transportation planning on land use change and carbon storage.The results indicate that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the area of cultivated land in Fuzhou city decreased significantly(239.25 km^(2)),while the area of construction expanded exponentially(423.34 km^(2)),and the area of forest land showed a slight decrease.(2)The PLUS model demonstrated high applicability in Fuzhou,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.928.(3)Under the transportation planning scenario,the overall transfer of cultivated land area is optimized.Compared with the natural development scenario,the area converted to construction decreased(1.90 km^(2)),and the area converted to forest land increased(1.89 km^(2)),and the unused land also obtained the optimal allocation in the transportation planning scenario.(4)Under the transportation planning scenario,the total carbon storage of the ecosystem decreased by 32.84 t compared to 2020.It still stored an additional 2.25 t compared to the natural development scenario,but lost 49.91 t compared to the ecological conservation scenario.(5)Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated a significant positive spatial correlation in carbon storage for all the three scenarios.The areas with high carbon storage value were clustered in the northwest of Fuzhou,while the areas with low carbon storage value were mainly clustered in the Minjiang River Basin and coastal areas of the city.The combination of the PLUS model and InVEST model achieved accurate prediction of future carbon storage,providing scientific reference for optimizing regional land use planning and enhancing carbon storage capacity.