植被恢复“潜力-实现”视角下生态政策效果评价的理论初探、模型构建及应用

Theoretical exploration,model construction and application of ecological policy effect evaluation from the“Potential-Realization”perspective of vegetation restoration

植被恢复是全球性议题和研究热点,生态政策是植被恢复的重要手段,开展生态政策效果评价对优化政策设计和提升植被恢复效率具有重要意义。然而,植被覆盖是资源禀赋、人类活动以及全球变化共同作用的结果,植被恢复结果不能等同于生态政策效果。为此,提出植被恢复“潜力-实现”研究框架,从理论上论证了植被覆盖理论最大潜力取决于资源禀赋条件,而潜力实现度变化可反映生态政策等外部因素改变所带来的植被恢复效果。进而,基于空间统计理论与方法,融合“空间位置邻近”和“环境特征相似”这两个特征,并纳入时间窗口考量,发展局部窗口相似生境建模方法,以准确测度植被恢复潜力及其实现度。最后,以黄土高原为例,结合模型参数解释,对该分析框架与新模型进行应用示范。案例研究验证了理论推导;此外,通过对传统植被覆盖度指标与潜力实现度指标的联合分析,可为植被的可持续恢复提供更多有用信息。本研究有望为生态政策评价和植被恢复规划提供新的理论与方法支撑。

Vegetation restoration is a global issue and research hotspot.Ecological policy plays an important role in achieving vegetation restoration.It is of great significance to assess the contribution of ecological policies to vegetation restoration,as it helps in optimizing policy design and improving policy efficiency.However,vegetation restoration is the result of the joint interaction of resource endowment,human activities,and global changes,and thus restorative effect of vegetation cannot be simply equated with the effectiveness of ecological policies.In this study,a research framework called“Potential-Realization of Vegetation Restoration”is proposed to improve the evaluation work.Firstly,it is theoretically demonstrated that the maximum potential of vegetation restoration depends on resource endowment conditions,while the changes in potential realization reflect the effects of external factors such as ecological policies on vegetation restoration.Following the theoretical derivation,as well as spatial statistical theory and methods,a novel approach called the“Local Window Similar Habitat Modeling”was developed by integrating two important characteristics,i.e.,the“proximity of spatial location”and the“similarity of environmental characteristics”,and the concept of“proximity”here also takes into account the time window.The new model is expected to improve the measurement accuracy for vegetation restoration potential and realization.Then,by taking the Loess Plateau as an example,combined with the interpretation of the parameters of the model,the application demonstration of the analysis framework and the new model is carried out.The main findings are as follows:(1)Through theoretical deduction,it is demonstrated that the vegetation restoration potential realization index can effectively shield the influence of resource endowment conditions and better reflect the vegetation restoration effect of ecological policy;(2)the case study further verifies the theoretical derivation;and(3)the joint analysis of traditional vegetation coverage index and potential realization index can provide more useful information for the sustainable restoration of vegetation.In conclusion,this study is expected to provide new theoretical and methodological support for ecological policy evaluation and vegetation restoration planning.