珠江三角洲二氧化碳源汇演变特征及驱动因素

Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Sinks in the Pearl River Delta Region,China

随着经济与人口快速增长,珠江三角洲(珠三角)地区是我国碳中和压力最大的区域之一.通过建立珠三角地区二氧化碳(CO_(2))源汇历史趋势清单,分析碳排放与碳汇的历史演变特征,并基于指数分解法识别了影响珠三角碳源汇的关键驱动因素.结果表明:(1)2006~2020年珠三角碳排放总量从2.18亿t上升至3.66亿t,呈现出波动上升的演变特征,总体上升了67.86%,尚未实现碳达峰;(2)2006~2020年珠三角绿地碳汇总量从1567.26万t下降至1552.59万t,呈现出波动下降的趋势特征,总体下降了0.94%,碳汇量远低于碳排放量,距离碳中和仍有很大缺口;(3)珠三角碳源主要来源于能源部门(40.38%)和工业部门(26.33%),碳汇主要来源于林地(67.92%)和耕地(18.09%);(4)“十一五”至“十三五”期间,碳源的主要正向驱动因素是经济增长和人口规模,主要负向驱动因素是能源强度(单位GDP的能源使用量),但“十三五”以来,降低能源强度可以释放的CO_(2)减排潜力正在减弱,未来需要挖掘能源、工业和交通等方面结构调整的负向驱动潜力;(5)“十一五”至“十三五”期间,碳汇的主要正向驱动因素是绿地规模,源于“十一五”期间城市绿地面积增加,主要负向驱动因素是碳汇系数,源于自然灾害导致的水稻等高碳汇系数作物减产,未来绿地增汇需重视绿地结构调整.研究可为珠三角制定降碳增汇政策提供科学支撑.

With the rapid economic and population growth,the Pearl River Delta(PRD)Region is one of the regions in China under the greatest pressure to be carbon neutral.This study analyzed the historical evolution characteristics of the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions and sinks from 2006-2020 and identified the key drivers of the CO_(2) emissions and sinks based on the exponential decomposition method.The results showed that:①from 2006 to 2020,the total carbon emissions in the PRD Region increased from 218.22 million tons to 366.30 million tons,showing a fluctuating and rising evolution characteristic,with an overall increase of 67.86%.The carbon emission had not yet reached a peak.②From 2006 to 2020,the total carbon sinks in the PRD Region decreased from 15.67 million tons to 15.53 million tons,showing a trend of fluctuation and decline,with an overall decrease of 0.94%.The carbon sinks were far lower than the carbon emissions,and there was still a large gap between carbon neutrality.③The main carbon emission sectors in the PRD Region were the energy sector(40.38%)and industrial sector(26.33%),and the carbon sinks mainly came from forestland(67.92%)and farmland(18.09%).④During the period from the"11th Five-Year Plan"to the"13th Five-Year Plan,"the main positive driving factors for carbon emissions were economic growth and population size,whereas the main negative driving factor was energy intensity(energy use per unit GDP).However,since the"13th Five-Year Plan,"the CO_(2) emission reduction potential released by reducing energy intensity has been weakening.In the future,the PRD Region needs to address the negative driving potential of the structural adjustment in energy,industry,transportation,and land use.⑤During the period from the"11th Five-Year Plan"to the"13th Five-Year Plan,"the main positive driving factor for the carbon sink was the green scale,which was conducted by the increase in urban green space during the"11th Five-Year Plan."The main negative driving factor for the carbon sink was the carbon sink coefficient,which was caused by the natural disaster-induced yield reductions in crops with a high carbon sink coefficient,such as rice.Green space structure adjustment should be emphasized in the future.This study can provide scientific support for developing robust carbon-neutral policies in the PRD Region.