东莞市低碳路径下加速电气化对CO_(2)和污染物协同减排影响

Impact of Accelerated Electrification Under the Low Carbon Path in Dongguan City on the Coordinated Emission Reduction of CO_(2) and Pollutants

城市是能源消耗的中心,电气化可以整合城市能源结构,实现清洁能源高效利用,探究城市低碳路径下加速电气化的协同减排影响对实现城市减污降碳至关重要.基于长期能源替代规划模型(LEAP-DG),设置了基准情景、低碳情景和加速电气化情景等3类情景,评估电气化措施在不同电力结构下的减排潜力,量化重点部门的措施贡献,探讨广东省典型制造业城市东莞的协同减排效果.结果表明,电力结构优化促进了电气化措施的协同减排效果,低碳路径下加速电气化将进一步降低电力污染物排放强度,2050年,东莞市CO_(2)、 NO_(x)、 VOC和CO减排7.35×10^(6)、 1.28×10^(4)、 1.62×10^(4)和8.13×10^(4)t, SO_(2)和PM_(2.5)消费侧减排量和生产侧增排量达到平衡.电气化渗透速率和电力结构优化协调发展是电气化措施实现减排效益的关键,工业和交通部门加速电气化将同时降低CO_(2)和大气污染物排放,交通部门得益于燃油车和电动车的高转换效率,2050年CO_(2)、 CO、 VOC和NO_(x)分别削减5.42×10^(6)、 7.76×10^(4)、 1.43×10^(4)和1.06×10^(4)t.而高电气化率的建筑部门,额外电力中煤电较高,提高了CO_(2)和各项污染物排放.城市在供电结构优化下合理调整不同部门电气化力度可实现针对性的污染防控.

Cities are the center of energy consumption.Electrification integrates urban energy structure and achieves the efficient use of clean energy.Exploring the urban impact of accelerated electrification under the low-carbon path is crucial to reducing urban pollution and carbon.Based on the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System(LEAP-DG),this study set up three scenarios,including the baseline,low-carbon,and accelerated electrification scenarios,to evaluate the emission reduction potential of electrification under different power structures,quantify the contribution of key sectors,and discuss the coordinated emission reduction effect of Dongguan,a typical manufacturing city in Guangdong.The results showed that accelerated electrification under the low-carbon path would reduce the emission intensity of power pollutants,and in 2050,Dongguan will further reduce CO_(2),NO_(x),VOC,and CO by 7.35×10^(6),1.28×10^(4),1.62×10^(4),and 8.13×10^(4) t;SO_(2) and PM_(2.5) emission reductions on the consumption side and increased emissions on the production side had been balanced.Accelerated electrification in the industrial and transportation sectors would reduce CO_(2) and air pollutant emissions at the same time,and the transportation sector would benefit from the high conversion efficiency of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles,reducing CO_(2),CO,VOC,and NO_(x) by 5.42×10^(6),7.76×10^(4),1.43×10^(4),and 1.06×10^(4) t,respectively,in 2050.In the building sector with high electrification rates,coal power was higher in extra electricity,increasing CO_(2) and pollutant emissions.Under the optimization of power supply structure,cities can reasonably adjust the electrification of different departments to achieve targeted pollution prevention and control.