基于系统动力学的保障性住房REITs项目风险动态评价研究

Study on Risk Dynamic Evaluation of Affordable Housing REITs Project Based on System Dynamics

保障性住房REITs项目在建设、维护和运营阶段中存在着许多不确定的风险。本文从政策、经济、市场、标的资产、建设、运营、社会七个层面建立保障性住房REITs项目风险评价体系,其次基于系统动力学方法绘制因果回路图与存量流量图,再采用熵权法与G1法计算综合权重建立变量间的函数关系,以此构建保障性住房REITs项目风险动态评价模型,通过仿真模拟分析华夏北京保障房REITs项目在运行阶段风险值的变动趋势,研究发现:运营风险、经济风险、市场风险风险值呈增长趋势;政策风险风险值呈下降趋势最后趋于稳定;建设风险、社会风险风险值呈先上升后下降趋势。最后,分析其原因并为项目在运营阶段如何有效规避风险提供相关建议。

There are many uncertain risks in the construction,maintenance and operation stages of affordable housing REITs projects.This paper establishes an affordable housing REITs project risk assessment system from seven aspects:policy,economy,market,underlying assets,construction,operation and society.and then the causal circuit diagram and stock flow diagram are drawn based on the system dynamics method,and then uses entropy weight method and G1 method to calculate comprehensive weights to establish functional relationships between variables.Based on this,the dynamic risk evaluation model of affordable housing REITs project is constructed,and the change trend of risk value of Huaxia Beijing affordable housing REITs project in the operation stage is analyzed through simulation.The research finds that:(1) the risk value of operational risk,economic risk and market risk shows an increasing trend.(2) Policy risk risk value shows a downward trend and finally tends to be stable.(3)The risk value of construction risk and social risk increased first and then decreased.Finally,this paper analyzes the reasons and provides relevant suggestions on how to effectively avoid risks during the operation phase of the project.