长江中游城市群城市韧性时空演化特征及动态预测研究

Spatial⁃temporal Evolution Characteristics and Dynamic Prediction of Urban Resiliencein Urban Agglomerations in Middle Reaches of Yangtze River

随着城市发展风险治理研究关注度的提升,城市韧性研究成为该领域研究的热点话题。选取长江中游城市群26个地级市作为研究对象,搜集2006~2021年度城市韧性指标数据,基于演化韧性理论,运用熵值法测度城市韧性水平,并刻画城市韧性时空演化特征,借助面板数据回归模型探寻城市韧性演化的主要影响因素,进一步利用灰色预测模型动态预测城市韧性发展趋势。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,长江中游城市群城市韧性总体水平较低,城市韧性呈现缓慢持续稳步增长态势,地区差异较为显著,离散程度较小,并呈缓慢收敛的趋势;高等级韧性区少,低等级韧性区分布广泛,基本形成“以顶点为高韧性区,边为中、低韧性区的正三角形形态的核心—边缘”空间格局;(2)开放强度、产业结构多样化及城市化水平是该区域城市韧性发展变化的主要影响因素,其中城市化水平影响程度最大,开放强度和产业结构多样化影响稍弱,行政能力和创新能力对城市韧性影响不显著,需要进一步提升区域行政管理水平和区域创新能力;(3)未来,研究区城市韧性仍将呈现稳步增长的发展态势,城市韧性总体水平将得到显著提升,高韧性值地区将会大幅增加,地区间差异呈现扩大趋势,武汉、长沙、南昌、株洲等区域中心城市的核心地位将进一步突显,“核心—边缘”城市韧性空间格局将进一步稳固。

With the increasing attention of urban development risk governance research,urban resilience has become a hot topic in this field.selecting 26 prefecture⁃level cities in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as the research objecton urban resilience indicators from 2006 to 2021 evolutionary resilience theory employ entropy evaluation method to measure the level of urban resiliencehe spatial⁃temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience the main influence factors of urban resilience evolution panel data regression models finally the development trend of urban resilience through gray prediction models.The research results indicate that:(1)During the research period,the overall level of urban resilience in the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River s relatively low,with a slow,sustained and steady growth trend in urban resilience significant regional differences,small dispersion,and a slow convergence trend;Regions with high resilience while low resilience regions widely distributed,which basically formed the‘core⁃periphery’spatial pattern of regular triangular shape with high resilient zone at the apex,medium and low resilient zones at the edge.(2)The intensity of openness,diversification of industrial structure,and urbanization level the main influencfactors the development and change of urban resilience in the region,with urbanization level having the greatest impact,the intensity of openness and diversification of industrial structure having slightly weaker impact,and administrative and innovation capabilities having no significant impact on urban resilience.Therefore,it is necessary to further improve regional administrative management and innovation capabilities.(3)In the future,the urban resilience of the research area still exhibit a steady growth trend,and the overall level of urban resilience will be significantly improved.Regions with high resilience will significantly increase,and regional differences might be expanding.The core position of regional central cities such as Wuhan,Changsha,Nanchang,and Zhuzhou will be further,and the“core⁃periphery”urban resilience spatial pattern will be further stabilized.