流动人口公共服务参与对生育意愿的影响——基于CMDS数据的检验

The Influence of Floating Population's Participation in Public Services on Their Fertility Intention—Validation based on CMDS data

未来一段时期,中国将面临严峻的人口形势,居民生育意愿低迷已成为各界关注的重大课题。有效解决低生育水平问题,是维持人口平衡问题的关键。流动人口作为人口重要组成部分,其生育意愿与我国的生育水平密切相关,但是从公共服务视角出发研究流动人口生育意愿较少。因此,针对性地研究流动人口公共服务对生育意愿的影响显得尤为重要。文章基于流动人口动态监测数据中的长三角地区数据集,运用Logit模型分析公共服务参与对流动女性生育意愿的影响,同时考虑不同城市规模和不同家庭规模(已有子女数)情况下公共服务参与对生育意愿的影响。结果发现,流动女性公共服务参与显著促进生育意愿。不同年份流动女性公共服务参与对生育意愿的影响不同,流动女性公共服务参与较低的年份生育意愿较低,公共服务参与较高的年份生育意愿较高。其中,超大城市和有0孩流动女性公共服务参与促进生育意愿。此外,不同公共服务参与水平对生育意愿的影响不同,均值以上公共服务参与显著促进生育意愿,均值以下公共服务参对生育意愿的影响不显著。流动人口公共服务参与水平较高促进生育意愿,公共服务参与水平整体偏低降低流动女性生育意愿,提高带有补贴效应的公共服务参与水平,有利于提高流动女性生育意愿。其中,提高特大城市、大城市和已有1孩流动女性公共服务参与水平促进生育意愿。与此同时,已婚和留居意愿促进流动女性生育意愿,年龄、曾生子女数和住房支出抑制流动女性生育意愿。住房支出抑制流动女性生育意愿更直观地表明了经济成本阻碍流动女性的生育意愿,公共服务参与提高会减轻生育负担。因此,文章提出以下建议:首先,完善公共服务体系,提高流动人口公共服务参与水平;其次,细化公共服务方式,扩大流动人口公共服务参与范围;最后,深化户籍制度改革,增强流动人口公共服务供给力度。

In the coming period,China will face a severe population situation,and the low fertility willingness of residents has become a major issue of concern.Effectively solving the problem of low fertility level is the key to maintain population balance.As an important part of the population,the floating population has a close relationship with the fertility level of China.However,there are few studies on the fertility intention of floating population in China,and even fewer studies from the perspective of public services.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the impact of public services on floating population’s fertility intention.Based on the data bank of the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in the Yangtze River Delta region,this paper uses Logit model to analyze the impact of public service participation on migrant women's reproductive intention,and also considers the impact of public service participation on reproductive intention under different city sizes and different family sizes(number of children).The results show that migrant women's participation in public services significantly promote their fertility intention.The influence of migrant women's participation in public services on fertility intention is different in different years.The fertility intention in the years with low participation in public services is lower than that with high participation in public services.Among them,that women in megacities and with zero child participate in public services can promote their fertility intention.Different levels of public service participation have different effects on fertility intention.The public service participation above the mean value significantly promotes fertility intention,while public service participation below the mean value has no significant effect on fertility intention.The higher level of public service participation of floating population promotes the fertility intention,while the lower level of public service participation reduces the fertility intention of floating women,and the higher level of public service participation with subsidy effect improves the fertility intention of floating women.Among them,improving the floating women’s participation level of public services in megacities,big cities and those with one child can promote their fertility.In addition,marriage and residence desire promote migrant women's childbearing intention,while age,number of children and housing expenditure inhibit migrant women's childbearing intention.Housing expenditure inhibits migrant women's childbearing intention,which more intuitively indicates that economic cost hinders migrant women's childbearing intention,and the improvement of public service participation will reduce the fertility burden.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:first,improving the public service system and improving the participation level of floating population in public services;second,refining the public service mode and expanding the scope of public service participation of floating population;and finally,deepening the reform of the household registration system and enhancing the supply of public services for the floating population.