考虑区域风险和瓶颈拥堵的中欧班列路径优化

Route optimization of China Railway Express considering region risks and bottleneck congestion

区域风险和瓶颈拥堵是中欧班列高质量运输组织亟需解决的关键问题。基于粗糙集理论实现运输风险关键影响因素筛选和权重计算,结合实际运输距离构建运输路径风险评价模型;运用排队论理论量化瓶颈场站货物拥堵停留时间,引入货物时间价值理论构建货物全程运输时间成本模型。以此为基础,提出综合成本最小和运输风险最小的中欧班列多目标路径优化模型。同时,基于A-NSGA-Ⅲ(自适应第三代非支配排序遗传算法)设计优化算法进行求解。以“长沙—柏林”为例探究分品类货物的路径选择优化结果,并仿真分析区域风险递增对路径选择的影响。研究结果显示,铁路是分品类货物在大多数路段的首选运输方式;长沙发运的货物在西安或乌鲁木齐集结,并在华沙进行货物分散相较于经重庆和杜伊斯堡集散的传统线路具有更低的综合成本和运输风险。仿真分析表明:随着俄罗斯区域风险的提高,部分货物选择跨里海、黑海通道运输,但即使区域风险提高至1,仍有部分货物会选择过境俄罗斯的运输路线。同时,针对长沙装载的货物而言,注重加强与西安和乌鲁木齐的联系有助于更好地应对过境俄罗斯线路的运输风险。研究成果可为中欧班列经营者路径选择合理决策提供科学依据,对提高中欧班列的运输韧性和运输效能有着重要意义。

Region risks and bottleneck congestion are key issues that need to be urgently addressed in order to organize high-quality transport on the China Railway Express.Based on the rough set theory,we proposed a method for selecting key influencing factors and calculating transport risk weights,which was combined with actual transport distances to construct a transport route risk evaluation model.By using queuing theory to quantify the congestion dwell time of freight at bottleneck stations,we introduced freight time value to build a model of the time cost for full freight transportation.Based on above models,we proposed a multi-objective route optimization model for the China Railway Express with minimum comprehensive cost and minimum transport risk.The optimization algorithm was designed and solved according to the A-NSGA-III(adaptive reference point based non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms).We took“Changsha-Berlin”as an example to explore the optimization results of route selection by sub-category goods,then simulated the impact of increasing regional risk on route selection.The results of the research show that rail is the preferred mode of transport for sub-category goods on most routes,and that freights from Changsha are assembled in Xi’an or Urumqi and dispersed in Warsaw with a lower overall cost and transport risk than the traditional route via Chongqing and Duisburg.Simulation analysis results show that with the increasing regional risk in Russia,part of the freights choose the trans-Caspian and Black Sea corridors for transportation,but even if the regional risk increases to 1,part of freights would still choose the transit Russia route.Meanwhile,for Changsha freights,a focus on strengthening links with Xi’an and Urumqi could help better cope with transport risks on transit Russian routes.The results of the research can provide a scientific basis for rational decision-making on the choice of routes for the China Railway Express operators,which is of great significance to improve the transport resilience and transport efficiency.