基于云模型的艰险山区铁路社会稳定风险评价

Social stability risk evaluation of railway in dangerous mountainous areas based on cloud model

艰险山区铁路具有地质条件复杂、自然环境恶劣和文化背景复杂等特点,随之带来的影响社会稳定的风险因素较多,易诱发社会矛盾,对艰险山区铁路展开科学合理的社会稳定风险评价对促进社会和谐稳定具有重要意义。考虑到艰险山区铁路的社会稳定风险因素具有模糊性与随机性的特点,基于云模型理论,提出一种组合赋权-二维云的社会稳定风险评价模型。从经济利益、社会治安、环境融合和相关制度4个方面,构建艰险山区铁路社会稳定风险评价指标体系。采用方差最大化思想对通过粗糙集优化层次分析法和熵值法确定的权重进行组合。将风险后果和发生概率作为基础变量,建立二维云模型,利用MATLAB软件的正向云发生器绘制风险云图,将评价风险云与标准风险云作对比可以直观判断项目的风险等级,并结合风险云贴近度以保证评价结果的准确性。以我国西部某山区铁路项目为例,运用组合赋权-二维云模型计算得出社会稳定风险等级为Ⅲ级,属于中风险,说明该项目存在一定的社会稳定风险隐患,该结果与中铁二院给出的评价结果一致,验证了基于组合赋权-二维云的风险评估模型在艰险山区铁路工程中的适用性,并据此提出风险防范和化解措施。研究结果可为合理评价艰险山区铁路的社会稳定风险,防范社会矛盾提供借鉴和参考。

The operating environment of railways in dangerous mountainous areas features complex geological conditions,harsh natural environment,and complicated cultural backgrounds,which bring numerous social stability risks and may rapidly result in social conflicts.Thus,a scientific and reasonable social stability risk evaluation of railways in dangerous mountainous areas is significant for promoting social harmony and stability.Based on the cloud model theory,a combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model focusing on social stability risk evaluation was proposed by considering the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness for railways social stability risk factors in dangerous mountainous areas.In this model,an evaluation index system for the social stability risk of railways in dangerous mountainous areas was constructed from aspects of economic interests,social security,environmental integration,and political system.The idea of variance maximization was used to combine the weights determined by rough set optimization AHP and entropy value method.In detail,a two-dimensional cloud model considering risk consequences and occurrence probability to be basic variables was built in this paper.The forward cloud generator of MATLAB software was used to draw the cloud map of risk.In this way,the project's risk level can be calculated by comparing the evaluation risk cloud with the standard risk cloud,and the acceptable result of the close degree of risk cloud confirmed the credibility of this model.As well,the risk level of a mountainous project in western China was analyzed by using the combined weighting two-dimensional cloud model,which was tested to be level III and belonged to medium risk.Therefore,it indicates that this project has certain social stability risk potential.And this result is consistent with the evaluation conclusion given by China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.Ltd,which verified the applicability of the risk evaluation model based on the combined weighting two-dimensional cloud model in railway projects in dangerous mountainous areas.Meanwhile,risk prevention and resolution measures were proposed based on the above conclusions.As a consequence,the research results clarify the effects and serve as a reference for reasonably evaluating the social stability risk of railways in dangerous mountainous areas and preventing social conflicts.