长三角工业碳锁定的测算及解锁途径研究

Study on the Measurement of Carbon Locking in the Yangtze River Delta Industry and Ways to Unlock It

通过对长三角地区工业2010—2019年的碳排放量和碳汇的测算,以两者的差值记为该地区的碳超载量,再用碳超载率(碳超载量/碳汇量)来代表碳锁定程度,探究长三角地区的碳锁定情况,然后,基于误差修正模型(ECM模型)分析长三角地区碳锁定的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2010—2019年,长三角地区的碳锁定问题一直存在,且程度一直在加深。(2)规模经济的产生和沉没成本的投入对碳锁定都有促进作用。(3)能源碳排放强度对碳锁定影响程度最大,降低能耗水平、减小对高碳技术的依赖对碳锁定有很强的抑制作用。(4)工业规模以上工业企业数量、固定资产投资额、能源碳排放程度、煤炭消费量这4个变量在长期和短期的效应水平存在不同程度的差别。据此提出了相关政策建议。

This paper explores carbon locking in the Yangtze River Delta region by measuring carbon emissions and carbon sinks of industries in the region from 2010 to 2019,recording the difference between the two as the carbon overload of the region.The carbon overload rate(carbon overload/carbon sink)represents the degree of carbon locking,and then,based on the error correction model(ECM model),the influencing factors of carbon locking in the Yangtze River Delta region are anlyzed.The results show that:(1)the carbon locking problem in the YRD has been existing and deepening during 2010-2019.(2)The generation of economies of scale and the input of sunk costs both contribute to carbon locking.(3)The intensity of energy carbon emissions has the greatest influence on carbon locking,and reducing the level of energy consumption and decreasing reliance on high-carbon technologies have a strong inhibitory effect on carbon locking.(4)The number of industrial enterprises above industrial scale,investment in fixed assets,carbon emission of energy and coal consumption are different in long-term and short-term effects.Accordingly,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.