城市韧性张力:学理因由、双因耦合与水平评估

Urban Resilience Tension:Academic Causation,Bivariate Coupling and Level Assessment

在气候变化和经济全球化背景下,提升城市韧性、减轻灾害风险是实现城市数字治理和高质量发展的重要基点。论文提出使用“韧性张力”表征城市韧性水平和提升空间,运用“风险—韧性”双因耦合矩阵测量山西省11个地级市的韧性状态,确定不同类型城市的韧性发展方向。研究表明:(1)山西省七成以上地级市的灾害风险水平偏低、韧性张力较好。(2)年均灾害损失占财政支出的比值与灾害防治及应急管理实际支出比的失衡反映了城市应急资金储备的不足。(3)融合吸收、恢复、适应和调整阶段的韧性过程曲线有助于发现韧性“赤字”并预测趋势。针对参与韧性建设的不同主体,坚持问题导向、因地制宜和风险沟通,切合时宜助推韧性张力提升。

In the context of climate change and economic globalization,enhancing urban resilience and reducing disaster risk are important for achieving digital urban governance and high-quality development.This paper proposes to use“resilience tension”to characterize the level and improvement space of urban resilience.The“risk-resilience”double factor coupling matrix is used to measure the resilience state of 11 prefecture level cities in Shanxi Province,so as to determine the development direction of different types of cities’resilience.The results show that:(1)more than 70%of the prefecture level cities in Shanxi Province have low disaster risk level and good resilience.(2)The imbalance between the ratio of annual disaster loss tofiscal expenditure and the actual expenditure of disaster prevention and emergency management reflects the shortage of urban emergency fund reserve.(3)The integration of the resilience process curves at absorption,recovery,adaptation and adjustment stages can help to discover the resilience“deficit”and predict the trend,which supports the guiding significance of resilience tension.Different subjects involved in resilience construction should adhere to the concept of problem-oriented,partial measures and risk communication,and improve resilience with the times.