小岛屿国家联盟在国际气候谈判中的“逆向领导力”成因分析

A causal analysis of the AOSIS reverse leadership in international climate negotiations

后巴黎时代全球气候治理难题的核心问题之一是如何协调各个国际行为体之间的利益诉求与国际、国内目标之间的矛盾。学界关于国际气候谈判领导力问题的研究通常从结构现实主义理论出发,大多聚焦在守成国集团或新兴大国,比较强调大国以及主要温室气体排放国家在主导国际气候治理进程中的作用,而较少关注小国集团通过制度设计、知识塑造、话语建构来强化领导力的内在逻辑。小岛屿国家联盟(AOSIS)在同欧盟、伞形集团、基础四国、七十七国集团(G77)和中国各主要国家集团的互动博弈中,竭力维护《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)下的多边谈判机制,通过外交斡旋、联盟强化等方式推进对自身有利的议程,同时不断扩大小岛屿国家基于历史修正和道德关怀的道义话语权,充分发挥小国在国际气候制度设计和知识塑造方面的优势,实现小国联盟在国际气候谈判中独特的“逆向领导力”。

A core problem of global climate governance is how to reconcile the interest demands of various international actors with international/domestic objectives.Current studies on leadership in international climate negotiations usually start from the structural realism theory,most of which focus on the established or emerging powers,and emphasize the role of large countries and major greenhouse gas emitters in leading the international climate governance process,while paying less attention to the internal logic of small countries to strengthen leadership through institutional designing,knowledge shaping and discourse construction.The Alliance of Small Island States(AOSIS)firmly maintains the multilateral negotiating mechanism under the UNFCCC in its game with major country groups such as the EU,Umbrella Group,BASIC countries,Group of 77 and China.AOSIS promotes its own favorable agenda through diplomatic mediation and alliance strengthening,and constantly expands the moral right of discourse of Small Island States based on historical correction and moral concern.By leveraging the advantages of Small States in institution designing and knowledge shaping,AOSIS has achieved its unique“reverse leadership”in international climate negotiations.