什么样的农户会进行承包地自主互换?——基于山东和安徽两省调查农户的实证

What Kind of Farmers Will Exchange Contracted Land Autonomously?——Based on Farmers Data from Shandong Province and Anhui Province

土地细碎化严重影响农业生产效率的提升和中国特色现代化的进程,细碎化治理迫在眉睫。作为一种新型细碎化治理模式,土地互换具有较大的政策潜力。基于山东和安徽两省242个村庄845份农户微观调查数据,运用Probit回归模型和半非参数模型对农户自发性土地互换的影响因素进行探讨,旨在为推动农户土地互换行为提供参考。结果表明,具有以下特征的农户进行土地互换的可能性更大:经营者性别为女性、农户经营地规模越大、农户承包地面积越小、经营地块数越多、拥有农机等固定资产、农户从其他村户了解过土地互换、该村乘车到最近县(区)时间越长以及有外来村户流转本村耕地。同时,进一步分析了规模农户采取土地互换可能存在的差异。

Land fragmentation has seriously affected the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and the process of China's characteristic modernization.It is urgent to carry out measures to address the fragmentation problem.As a new form of addressing fragmentation,land swaps have great policy potential,which can optimize land use and promote agricultural modernization and rural economic development.To better understand the factors that influenced farmers'behavior regarding land swaps,micro-survey data from 845 farmers in 242 villages across Shandong and Anhui provinces was analyzed.The aim was to provide insights for promoting farmers'land swaps,using probit regression model and SNP(semi-non parametric model).The results showed that farmers with the following characteristics were more likely to perform land swaps:female operators,larger operating land areas,smaller contracted land areas,more plots in operation,ownership of fixed assets such as agricultural machinery,awareness of land exchange from other villagers,greater distance from the nearest county by car,and renting local land by non-local households.At the same time,the differences between land swaps for large-scale farmers have been further analyzed.