基于灰色GM(11)模型的安徽省“十四五”期间医疗卫生资源配置预测研究

Prediction of medical and health resources allocation in Anhui Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period based on grey GM(11)model

[目的]对安徽2009-2020年省医疗卫生资源相关数据进行分析,并预测2021-2025年安徽省卫生资源配置情况,为安徽省“十四五”期间优化卫生资源配置提供参考。[方法]查阅安徽省统计年鉴,调取2009-2020年医疗卫生资源相关数据,构建灰色GM(11)预测模型,对安徽省2021-2025年卫生人力、卫生物力、卫生财力等医疗卫生资源配置情况进行预测。[结果]2021-2025年安徽省医疗卫生资源总体呈增长趋势,到2025年医疗卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师和注册护士数量分别达到50.14万人、19.40万人和27.66万人;卫生总费用将增至3537.74万元,年均增长率7.82%;医疗卫生机构数将增至29885个,年均增长率1.89%,医疗机构床位数将增至503949张,年均增长率为5.72%。[结论]“十四五”期间,安徽省卫生资源总量将不断增加,卫生人力资源呈现不断上升的趋势,卫生筹资水平不断提高,但是仍存在执业(助理)医师、注册护士数量不足、床位配置仍需优化以及医疗机构数量发展缓慢等问题。

Objective To analyze the relevant data of medical and health resources in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2020,to predict the allocation of health resources from 2021 to 2025,and to provide the reference for optimizing the allocation of health resources in Anhui Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Methods The grey GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed to forecast the allocation of medical and health resources such as health manpower,health material resources and health financial resources in Anhui Province from 2021 to 2025 by referring to the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province and retrieving the relevant data of medical and health resources from 2009 to 2020.Results From 2021 to 2025,the overall medical and health resources in Anhui Province showed an increasing trend.By 2025,the number of medical and health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses will reach 501400194000 and 276600,respectively.The total health expenditure will increase to 35.3774 million yuan,with an average annual growth rate of 7.82%.The number of medical and health institutions will increase to 29885,with an average annual growth rate of 1.89%.The number of beds in medical institutions will increase to 503949,with an average annual growth rate of 5.72%.Conclusions During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the total amount of health resources in Anhui Province will continue to increase;the health human resources will continue to rise,and the health financing will continue to increase.However,there are still problems such as insufficient number of practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses,to be optimized bed allocation,and a slow increase of medical institutions.