高温与干旱灾害风险评估模型构建理论研究

Theoretical Study on the Construction of Risk Assessment Models for High Temperature and Drought Disasters

提出了针对高温和干旱灾害风险评估模型构建理论。利用实时气象监测数据、高温主要承灾体(如人体健康等)的高温致灾危险性指标、灾情信息等,开展高温灾害的实时监测评估;针对区域内受高温灾害影响较大的承灾体分布暴露情况,开展灾损脆弱性评估,利用精细化定量预报产品,结合高温致灾阈值指标,确定危险性等级,开展动态风险评估;利用高温致灾阈值指标、灾情、承灾体等资料,完成高温灾害风险区划。同时,针对区域内的干旱灾害开展动态监测和风险评估,基于未来七天气预报和月、季气候预测,开展干旱预估和动态风险评估和灾害实时动态监测,跟踪干旱发生演变及程度情况。

This article proposes a theory for constructing risk assessment models for high temperature and drought disasters.It conducts real-time monitoring and evaluation of high-temperature disasters using real-time meteorological monitoring data,high-temperature hazard indicators of major disaster bearers(such as human health,etc.),and disaster information;And it conducts a vulnerability assessment for the distribution and exposure of disaster bearing bodies that are greatly affected by high temperature disasters in the region.It utilizes refined quantitative prediction products,combined with high temperature disaster threshold indicators,to determine the risk level and carry out dynamic risk assessment.It utilizes data such as high-temperature disaster threshold indicators,disaster conditions,and disaster bearing bodies to complete high-temperature disaster risk zoning.At the same time,dynamic monitoring and risk assessment will be carried out for drought disasters in the region.Based on the future seven weather forecasts and monthly and seasonal climate forecasts,drought prediction and dynamic risk assessment will be carried out,as well as real-time dynamic monitoring of disasters,to track the evolution and degree of drought occurrence.