中国人口年龄结构对就业结构影响的研究

A Study on the Influence of Population Age Structure on Employment Structure in China

计划生育政策使中国的人口增长率得到了有效控制,但导致了人口年龄结构的重大变化。利用1990—2020年人口和就业数据,通过格兰杰因果关系检验等方法建立中国人口年龄结构与就业结构的关联模型。得出以下结论:与第一产业相关性较强的是0—14岁人口,与第二产业相关性较强的是15—64岁与65岁及以上人口,与第三产业相关性较强的也是15—64岁人口与65岁及以上人口。由于第三产业从业人员众多,第二产业就业人员明显下降,第三次产业的就业人数与人口年龄结构之间存在长期的稳定关系;老龄化的加深对第二、三产业的人口流动影响较大;第三产业与各人口年龄结构之间存在高度的相关性根。只有根据人口年龄结构的特点和就业结构的特点采取符合中国特色的就业政策应对劳动年龄人口。

With the eff ective implementation of family planning policy,China’s population growth rate has got eff ectively controlled;however,the control has also led to a major change in population age structure.Based on the population and employment data from 1990 to 2020,this paper establishes the correlation model between age structure and employment structure of Chinese population with the help of Granger causality test.The conclusions go as follows:the population aged 0—14 is strongly correlated with the primary industry,the population aged 15-64 and 65 and above is strongly correlated with the secondary industry,and the population aged 15—64 and 65 and above is also strongly correlated with the tertiary industry.Due to the large number of employees in the tertiary industry,the number of employees in the secondary industry has decreased signifi cantly,and there is a long-term stable relationship between the number of employees in the tertiary industry and population age structure.The deepening of aging has a great impact on the population fl ow in the secondary and tertiary industries;there is a high correlation root between the tertiary industry and the age structure of each population.For addressing the crisis of working-age population,employment policies with Chinese characteristics are suggested to adopt according to the characteristics of the age structure of the population and those of the employment structure.