我国辛辣类蔬菜价格波动特征研究

Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics of Spicy Vegetables in China

近年来辛辣类蔬菜中大蒜、生姜、大葱、洋葱以及辣椒的价格波动十分剧烈,该研究主要以辛辣类蔬菜价格为对象,利用X-12季节调整法和H-P滤波法把辛辣类蔬菜价格分解为季节成分、长期趋势、周期成分、随机成分,划分不同的波动周期,分析辛辣类蔬菜价格波动的规律特征,并运用向量自回归模型研究辛辣类蔬菜价格之间的关联性,以期为合理引导农户种植行为、平稳蔬菜市场波动提供借鉴价值。结果表明:辛辣类蔬菜价格的季节性波动显著,价格整体呈上升趋势,并呈周期性波动;辛辣类蔬菜价格的季节性波动与蔬菜的生长周期密切相关;随机性波动没有呈现明显的增长或下降态势;辣类蔬菜价格之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,价格具有联动性,且关系较为复杂。

In recent years,the price fluctuations of garlic,ginger,scallions,onions,and chili peppers in spicy vegetables have been very severe.This study mainly focused on the price of spicy vegetables,and used the X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method to decompose the price of spicy vegetables into seasonal components,long-term trends,periodic components,and random components.Different fluctuation periods were divided to analyze the regular characteristics of price fluctuations of spicy vegetables,and this study used vector autoregressive models to study the correlation between the prices of spicy vegetables,in order to provide reference for guiding farmers'planting reasonably and stabilizing vegetable market fluctuations.The results showed that the seasonal fluctuations in the prices of spicy vegetables significant,with an overall upward trend and cyclical fluctuations in prices.The seasonal fluctuation of spicy vegetable prices was closely related to the growth cycle of vegetables.Random fluctuations did not show a significant increase or decrease trend.There was a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the prices of spicy vegetables,and the relationship is complex.