基于WRF模式的雷电潜势预报方法研究

ESTABLISHMENT AND TEST OF A LIGHTNING POTENTIAL PREDICTION INDEX

为了提高青海省雷电预警预报水平,本文利用中尺度预报模式WRF对发生在青海省境内的2次伴随有闪电的强对流天气过程进行模拟,引入雷电潜势预报指数LPI,通过模式模拟的雷电潜势预报指数LPI值和闪电实测值的对比分析,并将该指数在雷电天气案例中应用。结果表明:模式模拟的指数和闪电实测在时间分布上是一一对应;在空间分布上,其模式模拟的LPI值与实况闪电在发展趋势上一致,但在区域上有偏差,故可以进行雷电的密度预报。

In this paper,the mesoscale forecasting model WRF is used to simulate two strong convective weather processes accompanied by lightning in Qinghai Province,so as to improve the lightning early warning and forecasting as well as the lightning data application in Qinghai Province.Then,acomparative analysis is carried out between the simulatedlightning potential forecasting index(LPI)and the observed lightning,and appplg this index in lightning weather cases.Results show that the simulated LPI corresponds well to the observed lightning in time.Besides,the value of simulated LPI tends to be consistent with the observed lightning density,but there are someminor differences in the locations.Therefore,the LPI could be used to forecast the lightning density.