大豆生产者补贴政策对农户种植结构调整的影响——基于微观数据的考量

The Influence of Soybean Producer Subsidy Policy on Farmers'Planting Structure Adjustment--Based on a Micro Data Perspective

【目的】以大豆生产者补贴政策为研究对象,考察该政策是否实现种植结构调整目标,以期为完善大豆生产者补贴政策、实现大豆振兴计划提供经验借鉴。【方法】利用2019年7—11月和2020年9—11月吉林和黑龙江的追踪调研数据,使用工具变量分位数回归模型分析了大豆生产者补贴政策对种植结构的影响,并进一步从初始条件和规模异质性角度进行考察。【结果】①大豆生产者补贴政策改革促进农户种植结构调整。然而,这种促进作用在不同初始条件下具有较大差异。原本农户家庭种植大豆的比重越低或越高,生产者补贴政策改革越不利于激发该家庭增种大豆的积极性。②大豆生产者补贴政策能够提高普通农户和规模户Ⅰ型大豆种植比重,而对规模户Ⅱ型的效果不佳。③规模户Ⅰ型大豆种植比重提高的主要原因是总体经营面积的下降而非种植结构的调整。这一结果表明,生产者补贴政策改革很可能制约了规模化经营水平的提升。【结论】据此,提出针对不同农户应施行差异化的补贴标准,促进大豆规模化经营,以实现大豆振兴。

【Objective】Taking the subsidy policy for soybean producers as the research object,this paper aims to investigate whether the policy has achieved the goal of planting structure adjustment,so as to provide experience for improving the subsidy policy for soybean producers and realizing the soybean revitalization plan.【Method】Using the follow-up survey data of Jilin province and Heilongjiang province from July to November 2019 and September to November 2020,together with the quantile regression model of instrumental variables,the impact of soybean producer subsidy policy on the planting structure was analyzed,and further investigated from the perspective of heterogeneity of business entities.【Result】①The reform of subsidy policy for soybean producers has promoted the adjustment of farmers′planting structure.However,the promotion effect is quite different under different initial condition.The lower or higher the proportion of farmers who originally planted soybeans,the more unfavorable the reform of producer subsidy policy is to stimulate the enthusiasm of the family to increase soybean planting.②The subsidy policy for soybean producers can increase the proportion of type I soybeans planted by ordinary farmers and large-scale households,but the effect on type II households is not good.③The main reason for the increase in the proportion of type I soybean planting in large-scale households was the decline the overall management area rather than the adjustment of planting structure.This result shows that the reform of producer subsidy policy may restrict the promotion of large-scale operation of family farms,which is not conducive to the development of new agricultural business entities.【Conclusion】According to this,it is proposed that different subsidy standards should be implemented for different business entities to promote the large-scale operation of soybeans,so as to realize the revitalization of soybeans.